Constituency profile

East Ham

London · Borough constituency · Newham borough

Sir Stephen Timms MP
Sitting MP

Sir Stephen Timms

Labour

First elected June 1994

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
London
Borough constituency, Newham council
Last 5 GE winners
LLLLL
Labour 5/5
EU referendum 2016
46.3% Leave
UK average 51.9%; -5.6pp below mean
Current outlook
Labour +23.4pp
vs Others 17.6%
LondonBrexit-marginalDiverse

About the East Ham constituency

East Ham is a borough constituency in London. The sitting MP is Sir Stephen Timms (Labour), first elected in June 1994. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 51.6% to 20.2% for other parties, a majority of 12,863 votes on a 47.8% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 41.0% and other parties on 17.6%, a margin of 23.4 points.

Who lives in East Ham? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
46.3%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
33.7%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
24.1%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
38.2%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
60.5%
UK average ~36%
Median age
32.7
UK median ~40
Age 65+
10.1%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
40.2%
UK average ~28%

How did East Ham vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab hold · majority 12,863 votes (31.4pp) · turnout 47.8%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of East Ham

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

East Ham within Newham

East Ham sits entirely within Newham Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seatProjection
Newham
66 LSOAs
100%View projection ›

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
BoleynLabour 52.0%vs Others 19.1%May 2026 Others 41.6%vs Labour 27.2%
Labour→Others
+33.2pp
43.0%
East HamLabour 51.4%vs Others 19.8%May 2026 Others 39.6%vs Labour 26.3%
Labour→Others
+32.4pp
37.8%
East Ham SouthLabour 53.3%vs Others 17.9%May 2026 Others 38.0%vs Labour 27.1%
Labour→Others
+32.1pp
39.3%
Green Street EastLabour 51.9%vs Others 20.1%May 2026 Others 36.6%vs Labour 33.0%
Labour→Others
+27.7pp
38.2%
Little IlfordLabour 52.6%vs Others 19.8%May 2026 Others 41.9%vs Labour 33.1%
Labour→Others
+30.7pp
36.9%
Manor ParkLabour 52.2%vs Others 20.3%May 2026 Labour 35.4%vs Others 27.2%
Labour share
-16.8pp
38.1%
Plaistow NorthLabour 44.0%vs Others 25.7%May 2026 Others 37.2%vs Labour 30.7%
Labour→Others
+25.3pp
33.7%
PlashetLabour 49.2%vs Others 23.4%May 2026 Others 49.7%vs Labour 22.2%
Labour→Others
+38.4pp
40.2%
Wall EndLabour 50.9%vs Others 20.7%May 2026 Others 34.1%vs Labour 23.1%
Labour→Others
+30.9pp
39.6%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for East Ham at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won East Ham at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010Lab holdStephen Timms70.4%15.2%11.6%-1.2%1.6%27,82655.6%
2015Lab holdStephen Timms77.6%12.1%1.6%5.0% UKIP2.5%1.2%34,25259.8%+4.2
2017Lab holdStephen Timms83.2%12.8%1.2%1.2% UKIP0.8%0.8%39,88367.5%+7.7
2019notionalLabour winnerStephen Timms 2019 MP, pre-review boundary77.8%14.6%3.6%-1.6%2.4%29,86366.6%-0.9
2024Lab holdStephen Timms51.6%10.2%3.2%3.5% Ref11.2%20.2%12,86347.8%-18.8

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like East Ham

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to East Ham. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.