Constituency profile

Brent West

London · Borough constituency · Brent borough

Barry Gardiner MP
Sitting MP

Barry Gardiner

Labour

First elected May 1997

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
London
Borough constituency, Brent council
Last 5 GE winners
LLLLL
Labour 5/5
EU referendum 2016
42.8% Leave
UK average 51.9%; -9.1pp below mean
Current outlook
Labour +4.8pp
vs Conservative 31.1%
LondonRemain-leaningDiverse

About the Brent West constituency

Brent West is a borough constituency in London. The sitting MP is Barry Gardiner (Labour), first elected in May 1997. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 41.7% to 32.5% for the Conservatives, a majority of 3,793 votes on a 51.7% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 35.9% and the Conservatives on 31.1%, a margin of 4.8 points.

Who lives in Brent West? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
42.8%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
38.6%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
22.5%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
45.2%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
52.8%
UK average ~36%
Median age
35.6
UK median ~40
Age 65+
14.8%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
38.6%
UK average ~28%

How did Brent West vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab hold · majority 3,793 votes (9.2pp) · turnout 51.7%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Brent West

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Brent West within Brent

Brent West sits entirely within Brent Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seatProjection
Brent
68 LSOAs
100%View projection ›

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
AlpertonLabour 39.8%vs Conservative 30.3%May 2026 Lib Dem 47.1%vs Labour 18.2%
Labour→Lib Dem
+27.7pp
-
BarnhillLabour 44.3%vs Conservative 28.0%May 2026 Labour 28.9%vs Conservative 23.2%
Labour share
-15.4pp
-
KentonConservative 42.7%vs Labour 36.2%May 2026 Conservative 41.6%vs Green 15.9%
Conservative share
-1.1pp
-
Northwick ParkLabour 40.0%vs Conservative 33.5%May 2026 Green 33.6%vs Labour 23.8%
Labour→Green
+20.7pp
-
PrestonLabour 46.0%vs Conservative 34.7%May 2026 Conservative 34.1%vs Green 25.0%
Labour→Conservative
+10.3pp
-
SudburyLabour 41.0%vs Conservative 24.6%May 2026 Lib Dem 45.9%vs Labour 19.9%
Labour→Lib Dem
+27.1pp
-
TokyngtonLabour 47.4%vs Conservative 32.0%May 2026 Labour 34.0%vs Conservative 32.9%
Labour share
-13.4pp
-
Wembley CentralLabour 44.2%vs Conservative 29.5%May 2026 Lib Dem 34.8%vs Conservative 29.7%
Labour→Lib Dem
+26.5pp
-
Wembley HillLabour 41.4%vs Conservative 35.2%May 2026 Labour 35.0%vs Conservative 31.8%
Labour share
-6.3pp
-
Wembley ParkLabour 40.3%vs Conservative 23.5%May 2026 Green 33.2%vs Labour 27.0%
Labour→Green
+19.2pp
-

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Brent West at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Brent West at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010predecessorLab holdBarry Gardiner Brent North MP46.9%31.5%17.0%0.7% UKIP1.4%2.5%8,02862.3%
2015predecessorLab holdBarry Gardiner Brent North MP54.3%33.5%5.0%3.9% UKIP2.9%0.4%10,83463.5%+1.2
2017predecessorLab holdBarry Gardiner Brent North MP62.9%32.7%2.9%-1.2%0.4%17,06168.4%+4.9
2019notionalLabour winnerBarry Gardiner Brent North MP, pre-review boundary53.3%33.8%9.1%-1.7%2.1%9,43163.3%
2024Lab holdBarry Gardiner41.7%32.5%7.3%5.0% Ref6.8%6.7%3,79351.7%-11.6

Brent West was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Brent North (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.

Constituencies most like Brent West

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Brent West. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

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