Harrow West
London · Borough constituency · Harrow borough
About the Harrow West constituency
Harrow West is a borough constituency in London. The sitting MP is Gareth Thomas (Labour (Co-op)), first elected in May 1997. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 43.8% to 29.2% for the Conservatives, a majority of 6,642 votes on a 56.6% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 36.1% and the Conservatives on 33.2%, a margin of 2.9 points.
Who lives in Harrow West? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Harrow West vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Harrow West
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Harrow West within Harrow
Harrow West sits entirely within Harrow Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Harrow | 100% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greenhill | Labour 41.4%vs Conservative 29.1% | May 2026 Conservative 34.2%vs Labour 31.2% | Labour→Conservative +7.7pp | - |
| Harrow on the Hill | Labour 43.1%vs Conservative 31.7% | May 2026 Conservative 36.7%vs Labour 33.4% | Labour→Conservative +7.3pp | - |
| Headstone | Labour 42.6%vs Conservative 29.9% | May 2026 Conservative 33.7%vs Labour 26.5% | Labour→Conservative +10.0pp | - |
| Marlborough | Labour 45.8%vs Conservative 24.5% | May 2026 Labour 28.8%vs Others 25.6% | Labour share -16.9pp | - |
| North Harrow | Labour 44.0%vs Conservative 37.1% | May 2026 Conservative 42.4%vs Labour 30.9% | Labour→Conservative +9.2pp | - |
| Rayners Lane | Labour 42.8%vs Conservative 30.2% | May 2026 Conservative 33.5%vs Labour 28.9% | Labour→Conservative +8.6pp | - |
| Roxbourne | Labour 45.2%vs Conservative 26.4% | May 2026 Labour 40.7%vs Conservative 27.0% | Labour share -4.5pp | - |
| Roxeth | Labour 45.2%vs Conservative 28.0% | May 2026 Labour 34.8%vs Conservative 34.0% | Labour share -10.5pp | - |
| Wealdstone North | Labour 42.1%vs Conservative 25.3% | May 2026 Labour 31.6%vs Conservative 27.7% | Labour share -10.4pp | - |
| Wealdstone South | Labour 42.4%vs Conservative 29.8% | May 2026 Labour 26.9%vs Others 22.1% | Labour share -15.5pp | - |
| West Harrow | Labour 47.2%vs Conservative 28.4% | May 2026 Labour 38.3%vs Conservative 23.7% | Labour share -9.0pp | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Harrow West at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Harrow West at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Gareth Thomas | 43.6% | 36.8% | 16.2% | 3,143 | 67.3% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | Gareth Thomas | 47.0% | 42.2% | 3.4% | 2,208 | 66.9%-0.4 |
| 2017 | Lab hold | Gareth Thomas | 60.8% | 34.4% | 2.5% | 13,314 | 72.1%+5.2 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Gareth Thomas 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 53.1% | 34.8% | 8.2% | 9,098 | 67.2%-4.9 |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Gareth Thomas | 43.8% | 29.2% | 5.3% | 6,642 | 56.6%-10.6 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Harrow West
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Harrow West. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Private rent34.9 / 33.1vs 20.2
- ↓Owner-occupied51.8 / 48.3vs 61.9
- ↓Age 65+15.4 / 15.0vs 22.7
- ↑Graduate45.2 / 40.6vs 33.7
- ↑Private rent34.9 / 27.7vs 20.2
- ↓Leave45.1 / 47.5vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate45.2 / 41.8vs 33.7
- ↓Age 65+15.4 / 16.2vs 22.7
- ↓Social rent11.7 / 11.0vs 16.8
- ↑Private rent34.9 / 37.6vs 20.2
- ↓Owner-occupied51.8 / 45.2vs 61.9
- ↓Leave45.1 / 42.8vs 53.2
- ↑Private rent34.9 / 31.5vs 20.2
- ↓Owner-occupied51.8 / 48.9vs 61.9
- ↓Age 65+15.4 / 12.7vs 22.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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