Harrow East
London · Borough constituency
About the Harrow East constituency
Harrow East is a borough constituency in London. The sitting MP is Bob Blackman (Conservative), first elected in May 2010. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 53.3% to 28.9% for Labour, a majority of 11,680 votes on a 62.4% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 55.6% and Labour on 21.9%, a margin of 33.7 points.
Who lives in Harrow East? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Harrow East vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Harrow East
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Harrow East within Harrow and Brent
Harrow East crosses council boundaries: Harrow (86%), Brent (14%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Harrow | 86% | View projection › |
| Brent | 14% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belmont | Conservative 54.6%vs Labour 27.8% | May 2026 Conservative 62.2%vs Green 13.5% | Conservative share +7.6pp | - |
| Canons | Conservative 54.4%vs Labour 25.1% | May 2026 Conservative 62.1%vs Labour 13.1% | Conservative share +7.7pp | - |
| Centenary | Conservative 52.5%vs Labour 29.1% | May 2026 Conservative 57.7%vs Labour 19.7% | Conservative share +5.2pp | - |
| Edgware | Conservative 49.3%vs Labour 32.6% | May 2026 Conservative 53.5%vs Labour 24.8% | Conservative share +4.2pp | - |
| Harrow Weald | Conservative 50.4%vs Labour 28.4% | May 2026 Conservative 52.5%vs Labour 20.3% | Conservative share +2.0pp | - |
| Kenton East | Conservative 52.7%vs Labour 29.1% | May 2026 Conservative 64.1%vs Labour 16.8% | Conservative share +11.4pp | - |
| Kenton West | Conservative 54.5%vs Labour 30.1% | May 2026 Conservative 65.2%vs Labour 15.2% | Conservative share +10.7pp | - |
| Queensbury | Conservative 50.6%vs Labour 32.3% | May 2026 Conservative 52.9%vs Labour 20.1% | Conservative share +2.3pp | - |
| Stanmore | Conservative 61.4%vs Labour 23.7% | May 2026 Conservative 64.4%vs Reform 13.6% | Conservative share +3.0pp | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Harrow East at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Harrow East at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con gain from Lab | Bob Blackman | 37.6% | 44.7% | 14.3% | 3,403 | 68.1% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Bob Blackman | 40.6% | 50.3% | 2.1% | 4,757 | 69.0%+0.9 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Bob Blackman | 46.0% | 49.4% | 3.1% | 1,757 | 70.9%+1.9 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Bob Blackman 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 37.4% | 54.6% | 7.5% | 8,987 | 68.5%-2.4 |
| 2024 | Con hold | Bob Blackman | 28.9% | 53.3% | 3.2% | 11,680 | 62.4%-6.1 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Harrow East
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Harrow East. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Graduate40.6 / 41.8vs 33.7
- ↑Private rent27.7 / 26.7vs 20.2
- ↓Social rent10.4 / 11.0vs 16.8
- ↑Graduate40.6 / 45.2vs 33.7
- ↑Private rent27.7 / 34.9vs 20.2
- ↓Leave47.5 / 45.1vs 53.2
- ↑Private rent27.7 / 33.1vs 20.2
- ↑Graduate40.6 / 38.6vs 33.7
- ↓Leave47.5 / 39.1vs 53.2
- ↑Private rent27.7 / 31.5vs 20.2
- ↓Leave47.5 / 46.9vs 53.2
- ↑Private rent27.7 / 24.3vs 20.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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