Ealing Southall
London · Borough constituency · Ealing borough
About the Ealing Southall constituency
Ealing Southall is a borough constituency in London. The sitting MP is Deirdre Costigan (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 49.1% to 15.4% for the Conservatives, a majority of 15,793 votes on a 59.5% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 43.9% and the Conservatives on 14.4%, a margin of 29.4 points.
Who lives in Ealing Southall? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Ealing Southall vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Ealing Southall
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Ealing Southall within Ealing
Ealing Southall sits entirely within Ealing Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Ealing | 100% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dormers Wells | Labour 50.9%vs Others 17.0% | May 2026 Labour 36.2%vs Others 20.7% | Labour share -14.7pp | - |
| Hanwell Broadway | Labour 42.8%vs Others 17.4% | May 2026 Green 38.6%vs Labour 32.2% | Labour→Green +17.8pp | - |
| Lady Margaret | Labour 53.6%vs Conservative 15.8% | May 2026 Labour 41.7%vs Green 16.0% | Labour share -11.9pp | - |
| Northfield | Labour 46.8%vs Conservative 20.2% | May 2026 Labour 30.2%vs Green 21.5% | Labour share -16.6pp | - |
| Norwood Green | Labour 53.3%vs Others 15.5% | May 2026 Labour 32.4%vs Others 29.8% | Labour share -20.9pp | - |
| Southall Broadway | Labour 51.3%vs Conservative 16.0% | May 2026 Labour 34.4%vs Others 22.9% | Labour share -17.0pp | - |
| Southall Green | Labour 54.2%vs Conservative 16.1% | May 2026 Labour 40.6%vs Others 28.2% | Labour share -13.6pp | - |
| Southall West | Labour 44.8%vs Others 26.4% | May 2026 Labour 34.9%vs Conservative 23.2% | Labour share -9.9pp | - |
| Walpole | Labour 44.4%vs Conservative 16.9% | May 2026 Lib Dem 37.2%vs Labour 23.8% | Labour→Lib Dem +25.0pp | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Ealing Southall at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Ealing Southall at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Virendra Sharma | 51.5% | 29.8% | 14.9% | 9,291 | 63.8% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | Virendra Sharma | 65.0% | 21.7% | 3.6% | 18,760 | 66.0%+2.2 |
| 2017 | Lab hold | Virendra Sharma | 70.3% | 21.3% | 4.2% | 22,090 | 69.3%+3.3 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Virendra Sharma 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 59.7% | 23.9% | 9.8% | 18,266 | 67.9%-1.4 |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Deirdre Costigan | 49.1% | 15.4% | 6.0% | 15,793 | 59.5%-8.4 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Ealing Southall
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Ealing Southall. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Owner-occupied48.3 / 45.2vs 61.9
- ↑Private rent33.1 / 37.6vs 20.2
- ↓Leave39.1 / 42.8vs 53.2
- ↑Private rent33.1 / 34.9vs 20.2
- ↓Owner-occupied48.3 / 51.8vs 61.9
- ↓Age 65+15.0 / 15.4vs 22.7
- ↓Owner-occupied48.3 / 48.9vs 61.9
- ↑Private rent33.1 / 31.5vs 20.2
- ↓Age 65+15.0 / 12.7vs 22.7
- ↓Owner-occupied48.3 / 47.4vs 61.9
- ↑Private rent33.1 / 37.3vs 20.2
- ↓Leave39.1 / 43.3vs 53.2
- ↑Private rent33.1 / 27.7vs 20.2
- ↑Graduate38.6 / 40.6vs 33.7
- ↓Leave39.1 / 47.5vs 53.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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