Constituency profile

Birmingham Perry Barr

West Midlands · Borough constituency · Birmingham borough

Ayoub Khan MP
Sitting MP

Ayoub Khan

Independent

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
West Midlands
Borough constituency, Birmingham council
Last 5 GE winners
LLLL?
Labour 4/5, Ind 1/5
EU referendum 2016
43.4% Leave
UK average 51.9%; -8.5pp below mean
Current outlook
Others +14.7pp
vs Labour 21.4%
MidlandsRemain-leaningWorking-class profileDiverse

About the Birmingham Perry Barr constituency

Birmingham Perry Barr is a borough constituency in the West Midlands. The sitting MP is Ayoub Khan (Independent), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, other parties won with 38.1% to 34.1% for Labour, a majority of 507 votes on a 49.1% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has other parties on 36.1% and Labour on 21.4%, a margin of 14.7 points.

Who lives in Birmingham Perry Barr? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
43.4%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
24.9%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
28.9%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
52.0%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
47.2%
UK average ~36%
Median age
33.4
UK median ~40
Age 65+
14.2%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
38.7%
UK average ~28%

How did Birmingham Perry Barr vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Ind gain from Lab · majority 507 votes (4.0pp) · turnout 49.1%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Birmingham Perry Barr

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Birmingham Perry Barr within Birmingham

Birmingham Perry Barr sits entirely within Birmingham Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seatProjection
Birmingham
70 LSOAs
100%View projection ›

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
AstonOthers 39.5%vs Labour 34.5%May 2026 Others 32.7%vs Lib Dem 32.0%
Others→Others
+36.1pp
-
BirchfieldOthers 37.1%vs Labour 35.2%May 2026 Labour 34.6%vs Others 31.8%
Others→Labour
+18.2pp
-
HandsworthOthers 36.4%vs Labour 36.4%May 2026 Green 40.7%vs Others 23.8%
Others→Green
+35.4pp
-
Handsworth WoodLabour 36.9%vs Others 32.8%May 2026 Labour 37.9%vs Others 20.4%
Labour share
+1.0pp
-
HolyheadLabour 36.5%vs Others 33.7%May 2026 Others 38.2%vs Labour 33.8%
Labour→Others
+20.5pp
-
LozellsOthers 37.8%vs Labour 35.8%May 2026 Others 61.9%vs Labour 27.7%
Others→Others
+49.9pp
-
OscottOthers 49.7%vs Labour 23.5%May 2026 Reform 39.5%vs Conservative 25.8%
Others→Reform
+39.2pp
-
Perry BarrLabour 36.2%vs Others 30.6%May 2026 Lib Dem 34.5%vs Reform 19.7%
Labour→Lib Dem
+27.2pp
-

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Birmingham Perry Barr at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Birmingham Perry Barr at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010Lab holdKhalid Mahmood50.3%21.3%22.0%4.0% UKIP-2.5%11,90859.0%
2015Lab holdKhalid Mahmood57.4%21.5%4.8%12.2% UKIP3.2%0.8%14,82859.0%+0.0
2017Lab holdKhalid Mahmood68.1%26.5%2.4%-1.3%1.6%18,38363.0%+4.0
2019notionalLabour winnerKhalid Mahmood 2019 MP, pre-review boundary68.0%20.4%6.5%-1.9%3.2%22,32563.4%+0.4
2024Ind gain from LabAyoub Khan34.1%11.3%3.5%6.5% Ref6.5%38.1%50749.1%-14.3

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Birmingham Perry Barr

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Birmingham Perry Barr. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

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