Leicester East
East Midlands · Borough constituency · Leicester
About the Leicester East constituency
Leicester East is a borough constituency in the East Midlands. The sitting MP is Shivani Raja (Conservative), MP since July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 31.1% to 21.6% for Labour, a majority of 4,426 votes on a 61.0% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 29.9% and the Greens on 18.4%, a margin of 11.5 points.
Who lives in Leicester East? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Leicester East vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Leicester East
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Leicester East within Leicester
Leicester East sits entirely within Leicester Council. Leicester was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results with vote counts available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Leicester | 100% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent result with vote counts available. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belgrave | Conservative 37.1%vs Labour 21.9% | 2023 Conservative 57.5%vs Labour 22.8% | - | 58.2% |
| Evington | Others 41.0%vs Conservative 21.9% | 2023 Conservative 34.1%vs Lib Dem 30.6% | - | 48.0% |
| Humberstone & Hamilton | Conservative 28.3%vs Others 23.3% | 2023 Labour 42.1%vs Conservative 33.9% | - | 31.8% |
| North Evington | Conservative 31.7%vs Labour 22.7% | 2023 Conservative 48.9%vs Labour 37.9% | - | 52.7% |
| Rushey Mead | Conservative 35.6%vs Labour 21.6% | 2023 Conservative 47.2%vs Labour 29.4% | - | 48.9% |
| Thurncourt | Conservative 29.1%vs Labour 22.8% | 2023 Labour 44.9%vs Conservative 43.8% | - | 32.4% |
| Troon | Conservative 29.4%vs Others 23.6% | 2023 Labour 41.2%vs Conservative 36.3% | - | 35.1% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Leicester East at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Leicester East at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Keith Vaz | 53.8% | 24.4% | 14.2% | 14,082 | 65.8% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | Keith Vaz | 61.1% | 23.0% | 2.6% | 18,352 | 63.7%-2.1 |
| 2017 | Lab hold | Keith Vaz | 67.0% | 24.2% | 2.6% | 22,428 | 67.4%+3.7 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Claudia Webbe 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 50.9% | 38.5% | 5.6% | 5,999 | 63.1%-4.3 |
| 2024 | Con gain from Lab | Shivani Raja | 21.6% | 31.1% | 13.5% | 4,426 | 61.0%-2.1 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Leicester East
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Leicester East. Politics shown for context.
- ↑No quals33.1 / 29.0vs 18.0
- ↓Graduate23.0 / 25.3vs 33.7
- ↓Owner-occupied54.5 / 52.0vs 61.9
- ↑No quals33.1 / 28.9vs 18.0
- ↓Graduate23.0 / 24.9vs 33.7
- ↓Owner-occupied54.5 / 52.0vs 61.9
- ↓Age 65+16.9 / 15.7vs 22.7
- ↑No quals33.1 / 25.0vs 18.0
- ↑Private rent24.4 / 24.3vs 20.2
- ↓Owner-occupied54.5 / 47.4vs 61.9
- ↓Age 65+16.9 / 12.4vs 22.7
- ↑Under 3534.2 / 38.3vs 30.2
- ↓Age 65+16.9 / 10.1vs 22.7
- ↑No quals33.1 / 24.1vs 18.0
- ↓Owner-occupied54.5 / 38.2vs 61.9
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic model at the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls, built from the British Election Study Internet Panel (Fieldhouse et al.), Census 2021 (ONS) and Scotland's Census 2022 (NRS). The trajectory was recalculated with the current model, introduced in autumn 2026.
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