Constituency profile

Edinburgh North and Leith

Scotland · Burgh constituency · Edinburgh borough

Tracy Gilbert MP
Sitting MP

Tracy Gilbert

Labour

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
Scotland
Burgh constituency, Edinburgh council
Last 5 GE winners
LSSSL
SNP 3/5, Labour 2/5
EU referendum 2016
21.8% Leave
UK average 51.9%; -30.1pp below mean
Current outlook
SNP +1.2pp
Vulnerability score 8/10 (Labour projected to lose)
ScottishStrong Remain areaGraduate-heavy

About the Edinburgh North and Leith constituency

Edinburgh North and Leith is a burgh constituency in Scotland. The sitting MP is Tracy Gilbert (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 42.0% to 27.4% for the SNP, a majority of 7,268 votes on a 63.1% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the SNP on 29.1% and Labour on 27.9%, a margin of 1.2 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.

Who lives in Edinburgh North and Leith? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
21.8%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
64.6%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
9.3%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
51.2%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
47.7%
UK average ~36%
Median age
36.1
UK median ~40
Age 65+
14.4%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
40.8%
UK average ~28%

How did Edinburgh North and Leith vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab gain from SNP · majority 7,268 votes (14.6pp) · turnout 63.1%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Edinburgh North and Leith

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from Scotland's 2022 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Holyrood 2026 layer

How Edinburgh North and Leith voted at the Scottish Parliament election (7 May 2026)

Edinburgh North and Leith crosses multiple Holyrood boundaries: Edinburgh Northern (57%), Edinburgh North Eastern and Leith (27%), Edinburgh Central (11%). Scotland uses the Additional Member System: voters cast one ballot for a constituency MSP and a second for a regional list. The figures below are the constituency vote.

Holyrood constituencyShare of Edinburgh North and LeithWinnerRunner-upElected MSP
Edinburgh Northern57%Liberal Democrats 34.6%SNP 27.9%Sanne Dijkstra-Downie
Edinburgh North Eastern and Leith27%SNP 0.0%Labour 32.4%Ben Macpherson 13,630
Edinburgh Central11%Green 36.0%Labour 23.0%Lorna Slater

Holyrood 2026 constituency results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new Holyrood second-review boundary (in force from 7 May 2026).

Council layer (not Westminster)

Edinburgh North and Leith within Edinburgh

Edinburgh North and Leith sits entirely within Edinburgh Council. Edinburgh was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seat
Edinburgh
1 LSOAs
100%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
City CentreLabour 37.9%vs SNP 28.1%2017 Conservative 32.7%vs SNP 25.1%--
ForthLabour 43.8%vs SNP 29.0%2017 SNP 31.3%vs Conservative 28.4%--
InverleithLib Dem 30.6%vs Labour 28.4%2017 Conservative 36.9%vs SNP 19.0%--
LeithLabour 46.0%vs SNP 30.0%2017 SNP 36.2%vs Green 22.3%--
Leith WalkLabour 45.0%vs SNP 29.1%2017 SNP 34.5%vs Labour 22.5%--

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Edinburgh North and Leith at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Edinburgh North and Leith at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010Lab holdMark Lazarowicz37.5%14.9%33.8%-2.2%1.9%1,72468.4%
2015SNP gain from Lab CoopDeidre Brock31.3%16.2%4.5%1.5% UKIP5.4%0.2%5,59771.7%+3.3
2017SNP holdDeidre Brock31.2%27.2%4.6%-3.1%-1,62571.2%-0.5
2019notionalScottish National Party winnerDeidre Brock 2019 MP, pre-review boundary21.7%17.6%12.5%--48.2%12,98376.7%+5.5
2024Lab gain from SNPTracy Gilbert42.1%6.6%7.8%3.7% Ref10.9%1.5%7,26863.1%-13.6

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Edinburgh North and Leith

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Edinburgh North and Leith. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.