Clwyd North
Wales · County constituency
About the Clwyd North constituency
Clwyd North is a county constituency in Wales. The sitting MP is Gill German (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 35.5% to 32.7% for the Conservatives, a majority of 1,196 votes on a 55.5% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 26.2% and Reform UK on 24.8%, a margin of 1.4 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Clwyd North? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Clwyd North vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Clwyd North
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
How Clwyd North voted at the Senedd election (7 May 2026)
Clwyd North sits almost entirely within the Senedd constituency of Clwyd. Senedd elections use a closed-list proportional system; each Senedd seat returns six members.
| Senedd constituency | Share of Clwyd North | Winner | Runner-up | Seats (6 per constituency) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clwyd | 99% | Reform UK 32.3% | Plaid Cymru 28.3% | 3 Reform UK, 2 Plaid Cymru, 1 Conservative |
| Bangor Conwy Môn | 1% | Plaid Cymru 44.9% | Reform UK 28.1% | 3 Plaid Cymru, 2 Reform UK, 1 Conservative |
Senedd 2026 results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new 16-seat Senedd boundary.
Clwyd North within Conwy and Denbighshire
Clwyd North crosses council boundaries: Conwy (53%), Denbighshire (47%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Conwy | 53% |
| Denbighshire | 47% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jun 2026 | Rhyl South | Ref GAIN from Lab | Ref 44% PC 24% Lab 20% |
| 27 Sep 2024 | Rhyl Trellewelyn | Con GAIN from Lab | — |
| 14 Dec 2023 | Rhyl South West | Lab HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bodelwyddan | Labour 37.0%vs Conservative 35.2% | 2022 Labour 57.4%vs Conservative 42.6% | - | 40.5% |
| Colwyn | Conservative 39.4%vs Labour 33.2% | 2022 Conservative 42.4%vs Labour 19.6% | - | 66.9% |
| Denbigh Caledfryn Henllan | Labour 35.5%vs Conservative 27.8% | 2022 Independent 51.8%vs Plaid Cymru 32.3% | - | 36.0% |
| Denbigh Lower | Conservative 33.0%vs Labour 31.8% | 2022 Independent 39.8%vs Plaid Cymru 35.5% | - | 60.4% |
| Eirias | Labour 35.7%vs Conservative 33.8% | 2022 Independent 43.5%vs Conservative 34.8% | - | 72.0% |
| Gele and Llanddulas | Labour 37.8%vs Conservative 33.1% | 2022 Independent 56.0%vs Conservative 31.1% | - | 56.2% |
| Glyn | Labour 40.5%vs Conservative 24.1% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 39.3%vs Labour 33.9% | - | 44.3% |
| Kinmel Bay | Labour 34.3%vs Conservative 30.6% | 2022 Independent 73.4%vs Conservative 26.6% | - | 20.9% |
| Llandrillo-yn-Rhos | Conservative 39.0%vs Labour 34.9% | 2022 Conservative 49.3%vs Labour 37.0% | - | - |
| Llysfaen | Labour 32.7%vs Conservative 32.4% | 2022 Independent 46.6%vs Labour 29.5% | - | - |
| Mochdre | Labour 40.7%vs Conservative 26.7% | 2022 Labour 70.8%vs Conservative 29.2% | - | - |
| Pen-sarn Pentre Mawr | Labour 35.4%vs Conservative 29.4% | 2022 Independent 74.0%vs Conservative 26.0% | - | - |
| Rhiw | Labour 34.0%vs Conservative 32.6% | 2022 Lib Dem 56.3%vs Conservative 35.7% | - | - |
| Rhuddlan | Conservative 40.6%vs Labour 28.8% | 2022 Conservative 41.9%vs Plaid Cymru 33.0% | - | 53.6% |
| Rhyl East | Labour 36.0%vs Conservative 33.3% | 2022 Labour 47.5%vs Conservative 44.2% | - | - |
| Rhyl South | Labour 39.7%vs Conservative 31.4% | 2022 Labour 61.6%vs Conservative 38.4% | - | 36.2% |
| Rhyl South West | Labour 39.3%vs Conservative 25.4% | 2022 Labour 58.3%vs Conservative 27.8% | - | 23.7% |
| Rhyl Trellewelyn | Labour 40.4%vs Conservative 28.9% | 2022 Labour 50.9%vs Conservative 22.2% | - | 36.5% |
| Rhyl West | Labour 40.7%vs Reform 22.4% | 2022 Labour 74.4%vs Conservative 18.6% | - | 18.6% |
| St Asaph East | Conservative 37.1%vs Labour 35.4% | 2022 Green 53.5%vs Conservative 46.5% | - | 37.5% |
| St Asaph West | Conservative 39.0%vs Labour 28.8% | 2022 Conservative 61.5%vs Independent 38.5% | - | 28.3% |
| Towyn | Conservative 35.2%vs Labour 31.5% | 2022 Independent 51.9%vs Conservative 48.1% | - | - |
| Trefnant | Conservative 42.0%vs Labour 25.3% | 2022 Conservative 50.9%vs Plaid Cymru 49.1% | - | 42.1% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Clwyd North at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Clwyd North at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Lab hold | Chris Ruane Vale of Clwyd MP | 42.3% | 35.2% | 12.6% | 2,509 | 63.7% |
| 2015predecessor | Con gain from Lab | James Davies Vale of Clwyd MP | 38.4% | 39.0% | 2.6% | 237 | 62.4%-1.3 |
| 2017predecessor | Lab gain from Con | Chris Ruane Vale of Clwyd MP | 50.2% | 44.1% | 1.7% | 2,379 | 68.0%+5.6 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | James Davies Vale of Clwyd MP, pre-review boundary | 40.3% | 45.8% | 4.9% | 2,834 | 67.4% |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Gill German | 35.5% | 32.7% | 4.0% | 1,196 | 55.5%-11.9 |
Clwyd North was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Vale of Clwyd (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Clwyd North
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Clwyd North. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Age 65+30.1 / 30.4vs 22.7
- ↓Employed49.4 / 51.3vs 57.3
- ↓Under 3525.2 / 24.4vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+30.1 / 30.9vs 22.7
- ↓Employed49.4 / 51.5vs 57.3
- ↓Under 3525.2 / 23.6vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+30.1 / 31.8vs 22.7
- ↓Employed49.4 / 51.9vs 57.3
- ↓Graduate29.0 / 28.1vs 33.7
- ↑Age 65+30.1 / 30.6vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3525.2 / 23.6vs 30.2
- ↓Graduate29.0 / 28.5vs 33.7
- ↓Graduate29.0 / 29.3vs 33.7
- ↑Age 65+30.1 / 27.6vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3525.2 / 26.1vs 30.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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