Aberdeenshire North and Moray East
Scotland · County constituency · Aberdeenshire borough
About the Aberdeenshire North and Moray East constituency
Aberdeenshire North and Moray East is a county constituency in Scotland, covering most or all of Aberdeenshire. The sitting MP is Seamus Logan (Scottish National Party), first elected in July 2024.
At the 2024 general election, the SNP won Aberdeenshire North and Moray East with 35.2% of the vote, ahead of the Conservatives on 32.8%, a majority of 942 votes. Turnout was 54.5%.
If a general election were held today, PollCheck's projection at the current seven-poll average has the SNP on 33.7% and the Conservatives on 28.2% in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East, a margin of 5.5 points. The projection updates automatically as new polls are added.
Demographically, Aberdeenshire North and Moray East is closely divided in the 2016 EU referendum (an estimated 51.7% voted Leave in 2016). About 35.0% of residents hold a degree, 67.7% of homes are owner-occupied, and the seat has a median age of about 46 (2021 Census).
Across the last 5 general elections on record, the seat has been won by the SNP 3 times, the Conservatives 2 times (earlier years may be on predecessor boundaries).
Who lives in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Aberdeenshire North and Moray East vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Aberdeenshire North and Moray East
Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 800 residents each, from Scotland's 2022 Census). Hover any area for detail.
How Aberdeenshire North and Moray East voted at the Scottish Parliament election (7 May 2026)
Aberdeenshire North and Moray East crosses multiple Holyrood boundaries: Banffshire and Buchan Coast (77%), Moray (12%), Aberdeenshire East (10%). Scotland uses the Additional Member System: voters cast one ballot for a constituency MSP and a second for a regional list. The figures below are the constituency vote.
| Holyrood constituency | Share of Aberdeenshire North and Moray East | Winner | Runner-up | Elected MSP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Banffshire and Buchan Coast | 77% | SNP 35.2% | Reform UK 33.9% | Karen Adam |
| Moray | 12% | SNP 38.6% | Conservative 30.4% | Laura Mitchell |
| Aberdeenshire East | 10% | SNP 33.4% | Conservative 30.7% | Gillian Martin |
Holyrood 2026 constituency results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new Holyrood second-review boundary (in force from 7 May 2026).
Aberdeenshire North and Moray East within Aberdeenshire
The Westminster constituency of Aberdeenshire North and Moray East sits entirely within Aberdeenshire Council. Local council elections are a separate ballot from Westminster general elections - English councils rotate their election cycles and Aberdeenshire was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below show the most recent council ward results available.
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Aberdeenshire | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov 2024 | Central Buchan | Con GAIN from SNP | — |
| 9 Nov 2024 | Fraserburgh and District | Con GAIN from SNP | — |
| 7 Nov 2022 | Buckie | SNP GAIN from LD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward. Where the council held a May 2026 election, those results are shown; otherwise we show the most recent available ward result (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024), or, where the seat was uncontested at the last election, the current sitting councillor from OpenCouncilData. The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Aberdeenshire North and Moray East at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Aberdeenshire North and Moray East at past general elections?
2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | SNP hold | Eilidh Whiteford Banff and Buchan MP | 14.0% | 30.8% | 11.3% | 4,027 | 59.8% |
| 2015predecessor | SNP hold | Eilidh Whiteford Banff and Buchan MP | 5.8% | 28.8% | 5.1% | 14,339 | 66.5%+6.7 |
| 2017predecessor | Con gain from SNP | David Duguid Banff and Buchan MP | 9.5% | 48.0% | 3.5% | 3,693 | 61.6%-4.9 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | David Duguid Banff and Buchan MP, pre-review boundary | 4.2% | 48.3% | 4.4% | 2,399 | 64.2% |
| 2024 | SNP gain from Con | Seamus Logan | 10.1% | 32.8% | 7.3% | 942 | 54.5%-9.7 |
Aberdeenshire North and Moray East was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Banff and Buchan (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Aberdeenshire North and Moray East
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Aberdeenshire North and Moray East. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Private rent8.2 / 8.9vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied67.7 / 68.7vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3525.3 / 21.9vs 30.2
- ↓Private rent8.2 / 13.3vs 20.2
- ↑Social rent22.4 / 21.8vs 16.8
- ↓Under 3525.3 / 27.0vs 30.2
- ↓Private rent8.2 / 11.9vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied67.7 / 67.4vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3525.3 / 26.6vs 30.2
- ↓Private rent8.2 / 12.3vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied67.7 / 69.9vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3525.3 / 27.6vs 30.2
- ↓Private rent8.2 / 10.6vs 20.2
- ↑Social rent22.4 / 23.3vs 16.8
- ↓Under 3525.3 / 23.9vs 30.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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