Constituency profile

Aberdeenshire North and Moray East

Scotland · County constituency · Aberdeenshire borough

Seamus Logan MP
Sitting MP

Seamus Logan

Scottish National Party

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
Scotland
County constituency, Aberdeenshire council
Last 5 GE winners
SSCCS
SNP 3/5, Conservative 2/5
EU referendum 2016
51.7% Leave
UK average 51.9%; -0.2pp below mean
Current outlook
SNP +4.5pp
vs Conservative 28.1%
ScottishBrexit-marginal

About the Aberdeenshire North and Moray East constituency

Aberdeenshire North and Moray East is a county constituency in Scotland. The sitting MP is Seamus Logan (Scottish National Party), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the SNP won with 35.2% to 32.8% for the Conservatives, a majority of 942 votes on a 54.5% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the SNP on 32.6% and the Conservatives on 28.1%, a margin of 4.5 points.

Who lives in Aberdeenshire North and Moray East? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
51.7%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
35.0%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
20.9%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
67.7%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
30.6%
UK average ~36%
Median age
46.1
UK median ~40
Age 65+
26.9%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
25.3%
UK average ~28%

How did Aberdeenshire North and Moray East vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

SNP gain from Con · majority 942 votes (2.4pp) · turnout 54.5%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Aberdeenshire North and Moray East

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from Scotland's 2022 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Holyrood 2026 layer

How Aberdeenshire North and Moray East voted at the Scottish Parliament election (7 May 2026)

Aberdeenshire North and Moray East crosses multiple Holyrood boundaries: Banffshire and Buchan Coast (77%), Moray (12%), Aberdeenshire East (10%). Scotland uses the Additional Member System: voters cast one ballot for a constituency MSP and a second for a regional list. The figures below are the constituency vote.

Holyrood constituencyShare of Aberdeenshire North and Moray EastWinnerRunner-upElected MSP
Banffshire and Buchan Coast77%SNP 35.2%Reform UK 33.9%Karen Adam
Moray12%SNP 38.6%Conservative 30.4%Laura Mitchell
Aberdeenshire East10%SNP 33.4%Conservative 30.7%Gillian Martin

Holyrood 2026 constituency results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new Holyrood second-review boundary (in force from 7 May 2026).

Council layer (not Westminster)

Aberdeenshire North and Moray East within Aberdeenshire

Aberdeenshire North and Moray East sits entirely within Aberdeenshire Council. Aberdeenshire was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seat
Aberdeenshire
1 LSOAs
100%

Recent council by-elections

Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.

DateWardResultTop 3 vote shares
2 Jul 2026Peterhead South & Cruden
Aberdeenshire
SNP GAIN from ConSNP 36% Ref 23% Con 21%
9 Nov 2024Central Buchan
Aberdeenshire
Con GAIN from SNP
9 Nov 2024Fraserburgh and District
Aberdeenshire
Con GAIN from SNP
7 Nov 2022Buckie
Moray
SNP GAIN from LD

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
Banff and DistrictSNP 42.6%vs Conservative 36.6%2022 SNP 31.9%vs Conservative 27.8%-43.2%
BuckieSNP 44.8%vs Conservative 29.6%2017 SNP 44.8%vs Conservative 33.8%--
Central BuchanConservative 36.5%vs SNP 35.9%2022 Conservative 33.3%vs SNP 31.1%-29.3%
Fochabers LhanbrydeSNP 38.2%vs Conservative 35.9%2022 SNP 43.0%vs Conservative 39.8%-48.4%
Fraserburgh and DistrictConservative 38.3%vs SNP 30.8%2022 Independent 36.0%vs Conservative 32.5%-40.5%
Keith and CullenSNP 37.5%vs Conservative 35.6%2022 Conservative 43.7%vs SNP 43.5%-42.4%
Peterhead North and RattraySNP 38.6%vs Conservative 33.6%2022 Independent 38.1%vs SNP 29.1%-35.5%
Peterhead South and CrudenSNP 38.8%vs Conservative 33.0%2022 SNP 46.5%vs Conservative 41.3%-37.2%
TroupConservative 39.2%vs SNP 34.7%2022 Conservative 50.2%vs SNP 37.3%-40.2%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Aberdeenshire North and Moray East at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Aberdeenshire North and Moray East at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010predecessorSNP holdEilidh Whiteford Banff and Buchan MP14.0%30.8%11.3%--2.6%4,02759.8%
2015predecessorSNP holdEilidh Whiteford Banff and Buchan MP5.8%28.8%5.1%---14,33966.5%+6.7
2017predecessorCon gain from SNPDavid Duguid Banff and Buchan MP9.5%48.0%3.5%---3,69361.6%-4.9
2019notionalConservative winnerDavid Duguid Banff and Buchan MP, pre-review boundary4.2%48.3%4.4%--43.1%2,39964.2%
2024SNP gain from ConSeamus Logan10.1%32.8%7.3%14.6% Ref--94254.5%-9.7

Aberdeenshire North and Moray East was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Banff and Buchan (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.

Constituencies most like Aberdeenshire North and Moray East

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Aberdeenshire North and Moray East. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

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