Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross
Scotland · County constituency
About the Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross constituency
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross is a county constituency in Scotland. The sitting MP is Jamie Stone (Liberal Democrat), first elected in June 2017.
At the 2024 general election, the Liberal Democrats won Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross with 49.4% of the vote, ahead of the SNP on 26.6%, a majority of 10,489 votes. Turnout was 61.7%.
If a general election were held today, PollCheck's projection at the current seven-poll average has the Liberal Democrats on 43.0% and the SNP on 24.9% in Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross, a margin of 18.1 points. The projection updates automatically as new polls are added.
Demographically, Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross is closely divided in the 2016 EU referendum (an estimated 51.3% voted Leave in 2016). About 41.0% of residents hold a degree, 68.7% of homes are owner-occupied, and the seat has a median age of about 50 (2021 Census).
Across the last 5 general elections on record, the seat has been won by the Liberal Democrats 3 times, the SNP 2 times (earlier years may be on predecessor boundaries).
Who lives in Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross
Switch between ward-level 2024 election winners and a demographic view. Ward winners are Britain Elects' / New Statesman modelled estimates with an average ~4pp margin of error per ward. The demographic view splits the seat into small neighbourhoods (around 800 residents each, from Scotland's 2022 Census). Hover any area for detail.
How Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross voted at the Scottish Parliament election (7 May 2026)
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross sits almost entirely within the Holyrood constituency of Caithness, Sutherland and Ross. Scotland uses the Additional Member System: voters cast one ballot for a constituency MSP and a second for a regional list. The figures below are the constituency vote.
| Holyrood constituency | Share of Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross | Winner | Runner-up | Elected MSP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caithness, Sutherland and Ross | 94% | Liberal Democrats 48.0% | SNP 31.4% | David Green |
| Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch | 5% | Liberal Democrats 38.9% | SNP 36.5% | Andrew Baxter |
Holyrood 2026 constituency results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new Holyrood second-review boundary (in force from 7 May 2026).
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross within Council layer
No council overlap data available for Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross.
Council overlap
No council overlap data.
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jun 2026 | East Sutherland & Edderton | Ind HOLD | Other 40% LD 33% SNP 17% |
| 25 Sep 2025 | Tain & Easter Ross | LD GAIN from SNP | Con 39% LD 28% Lab 15% |
| 19 Jun 2025 | Cromarty Firth | Ind HOLD | Lab 24% LD 21% Grn 15% |
| 27 Sep 2024 | Cromarty Firth | Ind HOLD | — |
| 14 Jun 2024 | Tain and Easter Ross | Ind HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward. Where the council held a May 2026 election, those results are shown; otherwise we show the most recent available ward result (via DCLEAPIL, 2014-2024), or, where the seat was uncontested at the last election, the current sitting councillor from OpenCouncilData. The "Shift since GE2024" column is only computed for May 2026 results - earlier council votes pre-date the GE, so no directional shift is shown.
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross at past general elections?
2024 result is on current boundaries. The 2019 row is the UK Parliament's notional recalculation onto the 2024 boundaries (directly comparable to 2024). The 2010, 2015 and 2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time and aren't directly comparable.
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | LD hold | John Thurso | 24.6% | 13.0% | 41.4% | 4,826 | 60.9% |
| 2015 | SNP gain from LD | Paul Monaghan | 9.0% | 6.8% | 35.1% | 3,844 | 71.9%+11.0 |
| 2017 | LD gain from SNP | Jamie Stone | 12.4% | 22.6% | 35.8% | 2,044 | 65.9%-6.0 |
| 2019notional | Scottish National Party winner | Ian Blackford Ross, Skye and Lochaber MP, pre-review boundary | 5.3% | 17.3% | 33.6% | 2,788 | 70.1%+4.2 |
| 2024 | LD gain from SNP | Jamie Stone | 7.4% | 4.0% | 49.4% | 10,489 | 61.7%-8.4 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Under 3521.9 / 21.3vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+29.9 / 30.3vs 22.7
- ↓Private rent8.9 / 12.3vs 20.2
- ↓Private rent8.9 / 8.2vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied68.7 / 67.7vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3521.9 / 25.3vs 30.2
- ↓Private rent8.9 / 10.6vs 20.2
- ↑Graduate41.0 / 44.1vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied68.7 / 68.0vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3521.9 / 22.5vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+29.9 / 31.4vs 22.7
- ↓Private rent8.9 / 13.5vs 20.2
- ↓Under 3521.9 / 22.3vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+29.9 / 30.4vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied68.7 / 71.9vs 61.9
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.