Constituency profile

Glasgow South West

Scotland · Burgh constituency · Glasgow City borough

Dr Zubir Ahmed MP
Sitting MP

Dr Zubir Ahmed

Labour

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
Scotland
Burgh constituency, Glasgow City council
Last 5 GE winners
LSSSL
SNP 3/5, Labour 2/5
EU referendum 2016
40.9% Leave
UK average 51.9%; -11.0pp below mean
Current outlook
SNP +6.6pp
Vulnerability score 9/10 (Labour projected to lose)
ScottishRemain-leaningGraduate-heavy

About the Glasgow South West constituency

Glasgow South West is a burgh constituency in Scotland. The sitting MP is Dr Zubir Ahmed (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 43.6% to 34.4% for the SNP, a majority of 3,285 votes on a 51.8% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the SNP on 37.4% and Labour on 30.8%, a margin of 6.6 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.

Who lives in Glasgow South West? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
40.9%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
44.7%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
22.1%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
51.1%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
47.3%
UK average ~36%
Median age
37.6
UK median ~40
Age 65+
16.7%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
35.4%
UK average ~28%

How did Glasgow South West vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab gain from SNP · majority 3,285 votes (9.2pp) · turnout 51.8%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Glasgow South West

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from Scotland's 2022 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Holyrood 2026 layer

How Glasgow South West voted at the Scottish Parliament election (7 May 2026)

Glasgow South West crosses multiple Holyrood boundaries: Glasgow Cathcart and Pollok (36%), Glasgow Central (27%), Glasgow Southside (20%), Renfrewshire North and Cardonald (13%), Eastwood (3%). Scotland uses the Additional Member System: voters cast one ballot for a constituency MSP and a second for a regional list. The figures below are the constituency vote.

Holyrood constituencyShare of Glasgow South WestWinnerRunner-upElected MSP
Glasgow Cathcart and Pollok36%SNP 44.3%Labour 28.3%Zen Ghani
Glasgow Central27%SNP 57.4%Labour 19.4%Alison Thewliss
Glasgow Southside20%Green 36.5%SNP 28.4%Holly Bruce
Renfrewshire North and Cardonald13%SNP 41.6%Labour 27.4%Michelle Campbell
Eastwood3%SNP 33.2%Conservative 31.3%Kirsten Oswald

Holyrood 2026 constituency results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new Holyrood second-review boundary (in force from 7 May 2026).

Council layer (not Westminster)

Glasgow South West within Glasgow City

Glasgow South West sits entirely within Glasgow City Council. Glasgow City was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seat
Glasgow City
1 LSOAs
100%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
GovanLabour 42.3%vs SNP 37.6%2022 SNP 38.3%vs Labour 29.7%-17.5%
Greater PollokLabour 50.4%vs SNP 35.2%2022 Labour 43.7%vs SNP 38.5%-20.2%
Newlands / AuldburnLabour 46.6%vs SNP 33.9%Sitting Labour x1 SNP x1 Green x1no contested ballot--
PollokshieldsLabour 38.3%vs SNP 33.6%2022 SNP 30.6%vs Labour 23.4%-47.1%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Glasgow South West at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Glasgow South West at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010Lab holdIan Davidson62.5%6.6%9.0%--5.6%14,67154.6%
2015SNP gain from Lab CoopChristopher Stephens32.8%5.0%1.0%2.4% UKIP1.2%0.4%9,95061.8%+7.2
2017SNP holdChris Stephens40.5%15.6%1.9%1.4% UKIP--6056.2%-5.6
2019notionalScottish National Party winnerChris Stephens 2019 MP, pre-review boundary33.8%12.6%4.4%--49.2%5,53361.1%+4.9
2024Lab gain from SNPZubir Ahmed43.6%3.9%2.7%6.3% Ref7.6%1.5%3,28551.8%-9.3

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Glasgow South West

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Glasgow South West. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.