Constituency profile

Glasgow East

Scotland · Burgh constituency · Glasgow City borough

John Grady MP
Sitting MP

John Grady

Labour

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
Scotland
Burgh constituency, Glasgow City council
Last 5 GE winners
LSSSL
SNP 3/5, Labour 2/5
EU referendum 2016
43.8% Leave
UK average 51.9%; -8.1pp below mean
Current outlook
SNP +4.2pp
Vulnerability score 9/10 (Labour projected to lose)
ScottishRemain-leaningGraduate-heavy

About the Glasgow East constituency

Glasgow East is a burgh constituency in Scotland. The sitting MP is John Grady (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 43.9% to 33.2% for the SNP, a majority of 3,784 votes on a 51.4% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the SNP on 35.7% and Labour on 31.6%, a margin of 4.2 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.

Who lives in Glasgow East? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
43.8%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
44.0%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
21.9%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
44.9%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
53.5%
UK average ~36%
Median age
36.3
UK median ~40
Age 65+
16.3%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
38.7%
UK average ~28%

How did Glasgow East vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab gain from SNP · majority 3,784 votes (10.7pp) · turnout 51.4%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Glasgow East

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from Scotland's 2022 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Holyrood 2026 layer

How Glasgow East voted at the Scottish Parliament election (7 May 2026)

Glasgow East crosses multiple Holyrood boundaries: Glasgow Baillieston and Shettleston (56%), Glasgow Central (24%), Glasgow Southside (10%), Rutherglen and Cambuslang (5%), Uddingston and Bellshill (3%), Coatbridge and Chryston (2%). Scotland uses the Additional Member System: voters cast one ballot for a constituency MSP and a second for a regional list. The figures below are the constituency vote.

Holyrood constituencyShare of Glasgow EastWinnerRunner-upElected MSP
Glasgow Baillieston and Shettleston56%SNP 44.7%Reform UK 25.8%David Linden
Glasgow Central24%SNP 57.4%Labour 19.4%Alison Thewliss
Glasgow Southside10%Green 36.5%SNP 28.4%Holly Bruce
Rutherglen and Cambuslang5%SNP 44.2%Labour 26.9%Clare Haughey
Uddingston and Bellshill3%SNP 40.9%Labour 30.2%Steven Bonnar
Coatbridge and Chryston2%SNP 49.1%Labour 26.1%Fulton MacGregor

Holyrood 2026 constituency results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new Holyrood second-review boundary (in force from 7 May 2026).

Council layer (not Westminster)

Glasgow East within Glasgow City

Glasgow East sits entirely within Glasgow City Council. Glasgow City was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seat
Glasgow City
1 LSOAs
100%

Recent council by-elections

Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.

DateWardResultTop 3 vote shares
22 Mar 2025Southside Central
Glasgow City
SNP GAIN from Lab—

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
Anderston / CityLabour 43.4%vs SNP 31.8%No council data--
BailliestonLabour 46.6%vs SNP 34.6%2022 Labour 38.3%vs SNP 38.2%-39.1%
CaltonLabour 44.9%vs SNP 35.8%2022 SNP 39.4%vs Labour 34.2%-30.9%
LangsideLabour 39.3%vs SNP 31.7%2022 SNP 32.4%vs Green 27.9%-46.0%
ShettlestonLabour 48.1%vs SNP 33.7%2022 Labour 39.2%vs SNP 35.4%-35.9%
Southside CentralLabour 43.9%vs SNP 34.0%2022 SNP 34.3%vs Labour 31.5%-37.6%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Glasgow East at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Glasgow East at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010Lab holdMargaret Curran61.6%4.5%5.0%0.6% UKIP-3.5%11,84052.0%
2015SNP gain from LabNatalie McGarry32.4%6.0%0.7%2.6% UKIP0.9%0.5%10,38760.3%+8.3
2017SNP holdDavid Linden38.6%18.8%1.6%1.4% UKIP-0.8%7554.6%-5.7
2019notionalScottish National Party winnerDavid Linden 2019 MP, pre-review boundary33.5%12.3%4.1%--50.1%6,27659.0%+4.4
2024Lab gain from SNPJohn Grady43.9%4.8%2.5%6.7% Ref7.7%1.3%3,78451.4%-7.6

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Glasgow East

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Glasgow East. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.