Sittingbourne and Sheppey
South East · County constituency · Swale borough
About the Sittingbourne and Sheppey constituency
Sittingbourne and Sheppey is a county constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Kevin McKenna (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 29.1% to 28.2% for the Conservatives, a majority of 355 votes on a 51.9% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 38.7% and Labour on 21.2%, a margin of 17.5 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Sittingbourne and Sheppey? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Sittingbourne and Sheppey vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Sittingbourne and Sheppey
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Sittingbourne and Sheppey within Swale
Sittingbourne and Sheppey sits entirely within Swale Council. Swale was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Swale | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Dec 2024 | Milton Regis | Ref GAIN from Lab | — |
| 23 Nov 2024 | Murston | Other GAIN from Ind | — |
| 18 Sep 2023 | Minster Cliffs | Local GAIN from Con | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobbing, Iwade and Lower Halstow | Conservative 33.3%vs Labour 27.0% | 2023 Conservative 37.0%vs Others 22.5% | - | 41.1% |
| Borden and Grove Park | Conservative 27.5%vs Reform 26.9% | 2023 Others 66.9%vs Conservative 26.1% | - | 28.6% |
| Chalkwell | Labour 35.1%vs Reform 26.0% | 2023 Labour 55.3%vs Conservative 32.1% | - | 18.9% |
| Hartlip, Newington and Upchurch | Conservative 32.8%vs Reform 26.0% | 2023 Others 61.8%vs Conservative 28.8% | - | 34.9% |
| Homewood | Labour 36.8%vs Conservative 24.0% | 2023 Labour 40.1%vs Conservative 27.6% | - | 34.2% |
| Kemsley | Conservative 27.9%vs Reform 27.8% | 2023 Conservative 38.8%vs Others 27.2% | - | 30.8% |
| Milton Regis | Labour 37.8%vs Reform 25.9% | 2023 Labour 65.3%vs Conservative 18.6% | - | 24.8% |
| Minster Cliffs | Conservative 34.0%vs Labour 25.6% | 2023 Conservative 44.8%vs Others 18.6% | - | 40.6% |
| Murston | Labour 31.4%vs Reform 27.6% | 2023 Others 33.8%vs Labour 22.6% | - | 32.3% |
| Queenborough and Halfway | Conservative 29.8%vs Labour 28.5% | 2023 Conservative 43.4%vs Labour 42.5% | - | 28.4% |
| Roman | Labour 36.2%vs Reform 24.9% | 2023 Labour 57.8%vs Conservative 27.6% | - | 26.7% |
| Sheerness | Labour 31.6%vs Reform 26.6% | 2023 Labour 66.1%vs Conservative 13.6% | - | 20.8% |
| Sheppey Central | Labour 27.3%vs Reform 27.3% | 2023 Conservative 33.0%vs Others 27.2% | - | 36.3% |
| Sheppey East | Conservative 37.8%vs Labour 24.8% | 2023 Conservative 40.5%vs Independent 31.1% | - | 23.0% |
| The Meads | Conservative 29.9%vs Labour 27.8% | 2023 Conservative 68.2%vs Lib Dem 31.8% | - | 20.7% |
| Woodstock | Conservative 31.3%vs Reform 26.6% | 2023 Others 63.4%vs Conservative 23.4% | - | 38.6% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Sittingbourne and Sheppey at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Sittingbourne and Sheppey at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Gordon Henderson | 24.6% | 50.0% | 16.4% | 12,383 | 64.0% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Gordon Henderson | 19.6% | 49.5% | 3.2% | 12,168 | 65.0%+1.0 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Gordon Henderson | 30.6% | 60.2% | 2.7% | 15,211 | 62.9%-2.1 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Gordon Henderson 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 20.9% | 66.5% | 6.3% | 21,337 | 60.9%-2.0 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Kevin McKenna | 29.1% | 28.2% | 3.2% | 355 | 51.9%-9.0 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Sittingbourne and Sheppey
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Sittingbourne and Sheppey. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave65.4 / 63.2vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate21.1 / 24.5vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied66.5 / 67.9vs 61.9
- ↑Leave65.4 / 68.9vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate21.1 / 22.7vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied66.5 / 67.1vs 61.9
- ↓Graduate21.1 / 20.5vs 33.7
- ↑Leave65.4 / 70.5vs 53.2
- ↑No quals23.0 / 24.6vs 18.0
- ↓Graduate21.1 / 22.2vs 33.7
- ↑Leave65.4 / 70.9vs 53.2
- ↑No quals23.0 / 24.2vs 18.0
- ↓Graduate21.1 / 19.0vs 33.7
- ↑Leave65.4 / 69.3vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied66.5 / 66.8vs 61.9
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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