Southend West and Leigh
East of England · Borough constituency · Southend-on-Sea borough
About the Southend West and Leigh constituency
Southend West and Leigh is a borough constituency in the East of England. The sitting MP is David Burton-Sampson (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 35.6% to 31.5% for the Conservatives, a majority of 1,949 votes on a 62.5% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 32.4% and Labour on 23.7%, a margin of 8.7 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Southend West and Leigh? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Southend West and Leigh vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Southend West and Leigh
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Southend West and Leigh within Southend-on-Sea
Southend West and Leigh sits entirely within Southend-on-Sea Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Southend-on-Sea | 100% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belfairs | Conservative 39.4%vs Labour 28.6% | May 2026 Reform 36.2%vs Green 23.2% | Conservative→Reform +17.7pp | - |
| Blenheim Park | Labour 41.3%vs Conservative 29.3% | May 2026 Reform 31.1%vs Labour 25.0% | Labour→Reform +15.3pp | - |
| Chalkwell | Labour 36.4%vs Conservative 31.6% | May 2026 Green 31.6%vs Conservative 29.8% | Labour→Green +26.0pp | - |
| Eastwood Park | Conservative 35.9%vs Labour 25.2% | May 2026 Lib Dem 48.5%vs Reform 35.5% | Conservative→Lib Dem +31.2pp | - |
| Leigh | Labour 29.8%vs Conservative 28.4% | May 2026 Green 35.8%vs Lib Dem 21.2% | Labour→Green +24.2pp | - |
| Prittlewell | Labour 36.6%vs Conservative 33.3% | May 2026 Reform 31.8%vs Conservative 28.6% | Labour→Reform +15.7pp | - |
| St Laurence | Labour 41.5%vs Conservative 29.6% | May 2026 Reform 41.0%vs Labour 31.6% | Labour→Reform +16.8pp | - |
| St. Luke's | Labour 43.0%vs Conservative 26.3% | May 2026 Reform 38.1%vs Labour 25.7% | Labour→Reform +18.7pp | - |
| West Leigh | Conservative 40.6%vs Labour 24.0% | May 2026 Conservative 37.5%vs Green 25.7% | Conservative share -3.1pp | - |
| Westborough | Labour 47.3%vs Conservative 21.8% | May 2026 Labour 32.9%vs Reform 25.5% | Labour share -14.4pp | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Southend West and Leigh at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Southend West and Leigh at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Con hold | David Amess Southend West MP | 13.4% | 46.1% | 29.4% | 7,270 | 65.2% |
| 2015predecessor | Con hold | David Amess Southend West MP | 18.3% | 49.8% | 9.3% | 14,021 | 66.6%+1.4 |
| 2017predecessor | Con hold | David Amess Southend West MP | 34.0% | 55.2% | 4.5% | 10,000 | 69.7%+3.1 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | David Amess Southend West MP, pre-review boundary | 29.0% | 59.1% | 10.6% | 15,454 | 66.9% |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | David Burton-Sampson | 35.6% | 31.5% | 6.8% | 1,949 | 62.5%-4.4 |
Southend West and Leigh was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Southend West (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Southend West and Leigh
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Southend West and Leigh. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Social rent7.6 / 10.0vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied68.9 / 72.7vs 61.9
- ↑Leave58.0 / 56.3vs 53.2
- ↓Social rent7.6 / 11.5vs 16.8
- ↑Leave58.0 / 57.4vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied68.9 / 66.0vs 61.9
- ↓Graduate28.0 / 27.3vs 33.7
- ↓Social rent7.6 / 10.9vs 16.8
- ↑Leave58.0 / 57.2vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate28.0 / 28.4vs 33.7
- ↑Leave58.0 / 61.0vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied68.9 / 65.6vs 61.9
- ↑Leave58.0 / 60.3vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate28.0 / 29.4vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied68.9 / 65.4vs 61.9
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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