Castle Point
East of England · Borough constituency
About the Castle Point constituency
Castle Point is a borough constituency in the East of England. The sitting MP is Rebecca Harris (Conservative), first elected in May 2010. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 38.1% to 30.1% for Reform UK, a majority of 3,251 votes on a 57.2% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 48.2% and the Conservatives on 24.7%, a margin of 23.5 points - a projected change of hands from the Conservatives.
Who lives in Castle Point? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Castle Point vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Castle Point
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Castle Point within Castle Point
Castle Point sits almost entirely within Castle Point Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. In addition, the Essex County Council election was held on Thursday 7 May 2026; the county-division results covering this seat are shown below. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Castle Point | 98% | View projection › |
| Basildon | 2% | View projection › |
Essex County Council election, Thursday 7 May 2026
The county council is a separate tier of local government from the district council and from Westminster. These are the results for the county divisions covering this seat; vote shares are computed from the declared per-candidate ballots.
| Division | Winner | Top 3 vote shares | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canvey Island East | Ref | Ref 58% Canvey Island Independent Party 19% Con 14% | 40.8% |
| Canvey Island West | Ref | Ref 55% Canvey Island Independent Party 18% Con 15% | 35.7% |
| Hadleigh | The People's Independent Party | The People's Independent Party 35% Ref 34% Con 18% | 47.2% |
| South Benfleet | Ref | Ref 35% Con 31% The People's Independent Party 24% | 46.9% |
| Thundersley | Ref | Ref 40% The People's Independent Party 31% Con 16% | 43.9% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 May 2025 | Canvey Island Winter Gardens | Ref GAIN from Local | Ref 53% Con 17% Other 15% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Appleton | Conservative 41.4%vs Reform 28.2% | 2024 Others 58.3%vs Conservative 32.3% | - | 30.4% |
| Canvey Island Central | Reform 36.9%vs Conservative 30.2% | 2024 Others 94.9%vs Labour 5.1% | - | 23.3% |
| Canvey Island East | Conservative 35.4%vs Reform 34.9% | 2024 Others 81.0%vs Conservative 13.0% | - | 31.4% |
| Canvey Island North | Conservative 35.3%vs Reform 34.6% | 2024 Others 85.0%vs Conservative 7.8% | - | 29.1% |
| Canvey Island South | Reform 35.7%vs Conservative 34.9% | 2024 Others 88.8%vs Labour 5.8% | - | 28.1% |
| Canvey Island Winter Gardens | Reform 36.0%vs Conservative 29.9% | 2024 Others 73.1%vs Conservative 11.5% | - | 25.8% |
| Hadleigh St James | Conservative 42.9%vs Labour 24.7% | 2024 Others 64.8%vs Conservative 22.8% | - | 36.1% |
| Pitsea South East | Labour 33.9%vs Reform 28.0% | May 2026 Reform 47.2%vs Labour 23.0% | Labour→Reform +15.0pp | 36.7% |
| St George's | Conservative 37.6%vs Labour 27.6% | 2024 Others 50.8%vs Conservative 19.7% | - | 40.5% |
| St Mary's | Conservative 39.3%vs Reform 26.8% | 2024 Others 77.6%vs Labour 14.9% | - | 38.0% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Castle Point at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Castle Point at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Rebecca Harris | 14.7% | 44.0% | 9.4% | 7,632 | 66.9% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Rebecca Harris | 13.8% | 50.9% | 1.8% | 8,934 | 66.7%-0.2 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Rebecca Harris | 25.1% | 67.3% | 2.3% | 18,872 | 64.4%-2.3 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Rebecca Harris 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 16.8% | 76.5% | 6.6% | 27,009 | 63.8%-0.6 |
| 2024 | Con hold | Rebecca Harris | 23.3% | 38.1% | 3.3% | 3,251 | 57.2%-6.6 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Castle Point
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Castle Point. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied80.1 / 81.7vs 61.9
- ↑Leave72.7 / 67.7vs 53.2
- ↓Social rent5.4 / 6.4vs 16.8
- ↑Leave72.7 / 69.1vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied80.1 / 75.7vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+29.9 / 29.3vs 22.7
- ↑Leave72.7 / 71.1vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate18.5 / 21.4vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied80.1 / 70.3vs 61.9
- ↑Leave72.7 / 68.8vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied80.1 / 72.2vs 61.9
- ↓Graduate18.5 / 24.8vs 33.7
- ↑Leave72.7 / 66.7vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied80.1 / 72.4vs 61.9
- ↓Graduate18.5 / 25.5vs 33.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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