Rayleigh and Wickford
East of England · County constituency
About the Rayleigh and Wickford constituency
Rayleigh and Wickford is a county constituency in the East of England. The sitting MP is Mark Francois (Conservative), MP since June 2001. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 37.0% to 25.3% for Reform UK, a majority of 5,621 votes on a 62.7% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 37.9% and Reform UK on 32.9%, a margin of 5.0 points.
Who lives in Rayleigh and Wickford? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Rayleigh and Wickford vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Rayleigh and Wickford
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Rayleigh and Wickford within Rochford and Basildon
Rayleigh and Wickford crosses council boundaries: Rochford (69%), Basildon (31%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent ward result with vote counts available. In addition, the Essex County Council election was held on Thursday 7 May 2026; the county-division results covering this seat are shown below. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | 2026 election |
|---|---|---|
| Rochford | 69% | 2026 result › |
| Basildon | 31% | 2026 result › |
Essex County Council election, Thursday 7 May 2026
The county council is a separate tier of local government from the district council and from Westminster. These are the results for the county divisions covering this seat; vote shares are computed from the declared per-candidate ballots.
| Division | Winner | Top 3 vote shares | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Castledon & Crouch | Ref | Ref 49% Con 27% LD 12% | 46.2% |
| Rayleigh South | Ref | Ref 39% Con 27% LD 21% | 49.2% |
| Rayleigh West | Ref | Ref 40% LD 27% Con 18% | 45.1% |
| Rochford North | Ref | Ref 40% LD 22% Con 17% | 49.2% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Jun 2026 | Sweyne Park & Grange | Con GAIN from Ref | Con 56% Ref 25% LD 13% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent result with vote counts available. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castledon & Crouch | Conservative 36.0%vs Reform 26.5% | May 2026 Reform 50.5%vs Conservative 24.4% | Conservative→Reform +17.8pp | 49.8% |
| Downhall and Rawreth | Conservative 32.8%vs Reform 23.4% | May 2026 Reform 37.3%vs Lib Dem 29.7% | Conservative→Reform +12.1pp | - |
| Hawkwell East | Conservative 35.3%vs Reform 27.1% | May 2026 Reform 43.5%vs Conservative 18.0% | Conservative→Reform +16.8pp | - |
| Hawkwell West | Conservative 38.0%vs Reform 27.1% | May 2026 Reform 43.6%vs Conservative 25.4% | Conservative→Reform +14.5pp | - |
| Hockley | Conservative 37.7%vs Reform 25.4% | May 2026 Reform 37.5%vs Conservative 26.6% | Conservative→Reform +11.6pp | - |
| Hockley and Ashingdon | Conservative 39.2%vs Reform 25.8% | May 2026 Reform 34.8%vs Conservative 33.9% | Conservative→Reform +7.2pp | - |
| Hullbridge | Conservative 35.4%vs Reform 26.0% | May 2026 Reform 54.2%vs Green 22.5% | Conservative→Reform +22.6pp | - |
| Lodge | Conservative 36.5%vs Labour 26.3% | May 2026 Reform 44.1%vs Conservative 28.2% | Conservative→Reform +13.7pp | - |
| Sweyne Park and Grange | Conservative 33.5%vs Reform 26.3% | May 2026 Reform 39.7%vs Conservative 16.9% | Conservative→Reform +15.0pp | - |
| Trinity | Conservative 40.3%vs Reform 22.9% | May 2026 Reform 36.3%vs Conservative 31.1% | Conservative→Reform +11.3pp | - |
| Wheatley | Conservative 37.9%vs Reform 24.1% | May 2026 Reform 36.2%vs Lib Dem 28.7% | Conservative→Reform +11.6pp | - |
| Wickford North | Conservative 39.0%vs Labour 27.2% | May 2026 Reform 45.3%vs Conservative 25.3% | Conservative→Reform +17.7pp | 45.2% |
| Wickford Park | Conservative 34.4%vs Reform 28.3% | May 2026 Reform 44.5%vs Conservative 31.4% | Conservative→Reform +9.6pp | 41.2% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Rayleigh and Wickford at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Rayleigh and Wickford at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Mark Francois | 14.5% | 57.8% | 15.1% | 22,338 | 69.2% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Mark Francois | 12.6% | 54.7% | 3.0% | 17,230 | 69.0%-0.2 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Mark Francois | 24.3% | 66.7% | 2.8% | 23,450 | 70.4%+1.4 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Mark Francois 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 15.7% | 72.9% | 7.7% | 30,348 | 69.3%-1.1 |
| 2024 | Con hold | Mark Francois | 24.6% | 37.0% | 8.5% | 5,621 | 62.7%-6.6 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Rayleigh and Wickford
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Rayleigh and Wickford. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied81.7 / 77.1vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent11.3 / 11.8vs 20.2
- ↓Graduate22.9 / 26.4vs 33.7
- ↑Leave67.7 / 69.1vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied81.7 / 75.7vs 61.9
- ↓Graduate22.9 / 26.1vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied81.7 / 80.1vs 61.9
- ↑Leave67.7 / 72.7vs 53.2
- ↓Social rent6.4 / 5.4vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied81.7 / 77.5vs 61.9
- ↑Leave67.7 / 64.7vs 53.2
- ↓Social rent6.4 / 9.1vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied81.7 / 77.9vs 61.9
- ↑Leave67.7 / 67.8vs 53.2
- ↓Private rent11.3 / 10.4vs 20.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic model at the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls, built from the British Election Study Internet Panel (Fieldhouse et al.), Census 2021 (ONS) and Scotland's Census 2022 (NRS). The trajectory was recalculated with the current model, introduced in autumn 2026.
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