Constituency profile

Maldon

East of England · County constituency

Sir John Whittingdale MP
Sitting MP

Sir John Whittingdale

Conservative

First elected April 1992

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
East of England
County constituency
Last 5 GE winners
CCCCC
Conservative 5/5
EU referendum 2016
61.0% Leave
UK average 51.9%; +9.1pp above mean
Current outlook
Reform UK +9.4pp
Vulnerability score 9/10 (Conservative projected to lose)
SouthernStrong Leave areaWorking-class profile

About the Maldon constituency

Maldon is a county constituency in the East of England. The sitting MP is Sir John Whittingdale (Conservative), first elected in April 1992. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 38.9% to 25.0% for Reform UK, a majority of 6,906 votes on a 63.7% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 39.0% and the Conservatives on 29.6%, a margin of 9.4 points - a projected change of hands from the Conservatives.

Who lives in Maldon? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
61.0%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
26.4%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
18.5%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
77.1%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
22.1%
UK average ~36%
Median age
47.4
UK median ~40
Age 65+
28.8%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
24.1%
UK average ~28%

How did Maldon vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Con hold · majority 6,906 votes (13.9pp) · turnout 63.7%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Maldon

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Maldon within Maldon and Chelmsford

Maldon crosses council boundaries: Maldon (52%), Chelmsford (48%). None of the constituent district councils were in the 2026 election cycle, but the Essex County Council election was held on Thursday 7 May 2026; the county-division results covering this seat are shown below. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seat
Maldon
33 LSOAs
52%
Chelmsford
30 LSOAs
48%

Essex County Council election, Thursday 7 May 2026

The county council is a separate tier of local government from the district council and from Westminster. These are the results for the county divisions covering this seat; vote shares are computed from the declared per-candidate ballots.

DivisionWinnerTop 3 vote sharesTurnout
Burnham & SouthminsterIndependentIndependent 41% Ref 39% Con 10%44.2%
Danbury & The HanningfieldsRefRef 43% Con 31% Independent 8%49.6%
Maldon Rural SouthRefRef 43% Con 28% Independent 17%47.9%
Maldon Town & HeybridgeRefRef 33% Con 26% LD 24%45.0%
Woodham FerrersRefRef 41% Con 32% Grn 9%44.5%

Recent council by-elections

Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.

DateWardResultTop 3 vote shares
29 May 2025Maldon West
Maldon
LD GAIN from LocalLD 42% Ref 35% Con 15%
29 Mar 2025Maldon North
Maldon
Con HOLD
18 Dec 2024South Hanningfield Stock and Margaretting
Chelmsford
Con HOLD

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
AlthorneConservative 38.5%vs Reform 25.1%2023 Others 70.2%vs Conservative 23.1%-34.9%
Bicknacre and East and West HanningfieldConservative 43.7%vs Reform 22.8%2023 Conservative 66.3%vs Lib Dem 23.5%-31.9%
Burnham-on-Crouch NorthConservative 38.1%vs Reform 24.9%2023 Independent 50.1%vs Labour 21.1%-47.4%
Burnham-on-Crouch SouthConservative 38.6%vs Reform 26.9%2023 Independent 49.7%vs Conservative 20.5%-41.1%
GalleywoodConservative 42.5%vs Reform 25.9%2023 Conservative 49.7%vs Others 21.6%-39.6%
Heybridge EastConservative 36.7%vs Reform 25.9%2023 Lib Dem 52.0%vs Conservative 31.6%-34.9%
Heybridge WestConservative 28.6%vs Reform 27.4%2023 Lib Dem 73.3%vs Conservative 14.1%-26.5%
Little Baddow, Danbury and SandonConservative 46.3%vs Reform 21.4%2023 Conservative 71.1%vs Lib Dem 22.4%-34.1%
Maldon EastReform 30.2%vs Conservative 27.7%2023 Independent 70.0%vs Conservative 29.9%-22.4%
Maldon NorthConservative 32.2%vs Reform 25.7%2023 Lib Dem 41.8%vs Conservative 22.8%-52.6%
Maldon SouthConservative 35.5%vs Reform 26.2%2023 Conservative 35.1%vs Independent 29.7%-50.3%
Maldon WestConservative 31.6%vs Reform 26.1%2023 Lib Dem 42.9%vs Others 35.8%-42.6%
MaylandConservative 37.4%vs Reform 23.9%2023 Conservative 44.2%vs Independent 40.9%-36.2%
PurleighConservative 44.3%vs Reform 22.5%2023 Conservative 62.7%vs Labour 11.2%-38.4%
Rettendon and RunwellConservative 41.9%vs Reform 25.3%2023 Independent 53.3%vs Conservative 37.6%-31.9%
South Hanningfield, Stock and MargarettingConservative 45.0%vs Reform 24.3%2023 Conservative 77.4%vs Lib Dem 17.0%-28.9%
South Woodham-Chetwood and CollingwoodConservative 37.6%vs Reform 26.6%2023 Conservative 51.7%vs Others 27.8%-27.5%
South Woodham-Elmwood and WoodvilleConservative 33.0%vs Reform 26.8%2023 Lib Dem 44.0%vs Others 26.4%-31.1%
SouthminsterConservative 36.6%vs Reform 26.4%2023 Independent 45.0%vs Conservative 28.6%-33.4%
TillinghamConservative 45.2%vs Labour 19.9%2019 Conservative 44.9%vs Independent 30.6%-35.9%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Maldon at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Maldon at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010Con holdJohn Whittingdale12.7%59.8%19.3%5.1% UKIP-3.1%19,40769.6%
2015Con holdJohn Whittingdale11.8%60.6%4.5%14.7% UKIP3.1%5.3%22,07069.6%+0.0
2017Con holdJohn Whittingdale21.3%67.9%4.3%3.8% UKIP2.1%0.5%23,43070.2%+0.6
2019notionalConservative winnerJohn Whittingdale 2019 MP, pre-review boundary12.6%72.2%11.7%-3.4%0.1%32,00169.9%-0.3
2024Con holdJohn Whittingdale19.7%38.9%11.8%25.0% Ref4.6%-6,90663.7%-6.2

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Maldon

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Maldon. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

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