Constituency profile

Staffordshire Moorlands

West Midlands · County constituency · Staffordshire Moorlands borough

Dame Karen Bradley MP
Sitting MP

Dame Karen Bradley

Conservative

First elected May 2010

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
West Midlands
County constituency, Staffordshire Moorlands council
Last 5 GE winners
CCCCC
Conservative 5/5
EU referendum 2016
64.7% Leave
UK average 51.9%; +12.8pp above mean
Current outlook
Conservative +0.6pp
vs Reform UK 31.6%
MidlandsStrong Leave area

About the Staffordshire Moorlands constituency

Staffordshire Moorlands is a county constituency in the West Midlands. The sitting MP is Dame Karen Bradley (Conservative), first elected in May 2010. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 35.4% to 32.6% for Labour, a majority of 1,175 votes on a 62.0% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 32.2% and Reform UK on 31.6%, a margin of 0.6 points.

Who lives in Staffordshire Moorlands? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
64.7%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
28.3%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
20.2%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
77.5%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
22.0%
UK average ~36%
Median age
49.5
UK median ~40
Age 65+
30.7%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
22.6%
UK average ~28%

How did Staffordshire Moorlands vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Con hold · majority 1,175 votes (2.8pp) · turnout 62.0%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Staffordshire Moorlands

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Staffordshire Moorlands within Staffordshire Moorlands

Staffordshire Moorlands sits entirely within Staffordshire Moorlands Council. Staffordshire Moorlands was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seat
Staffordshire Moorlands
52 LSOAs
100%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
AltonConservative 42.0%vs Labour 27.9%2023 Conservative 54.9%vs Labour 45.1%-33.1%
Bagnall and StanleyConservative 50.4%vs Labour 21.5%2023 Conservative 53.7%vs Independent 28.5%-48.8%
Biddulph EastLabour 38.0%vs Reform 26.8%2023 Labour 73.9%vs Independent 20.6%-20.4%
Biddulph MoorConservative 36.6%vs Reform 27.1%2023 Independent 75.3%vs Labour 24.7%-29.9%
Biddulph NorthLabour 40.1%vs Conservative 29.4%2023 Independent 65.0%vs Labour 24.6%-35.4%
Biddulph SouthLabour 34.0%vs Conservative 30.8%2023 Labour 46.8%vs Independent 39.8%-32.7%
Biddulph WestConservative 32.4%vs Labour 31.7%2023 Labour 46.2%vs Conservative 36.7%-29.5%
Brown Edge and EndonConservative 40.6%vs Labour 27.3%2023 Conservative 50.1%vs Lib Dem 37.9%-44.1%
CaverswallConservative 42.0%vs Labour 25.7%2023 Conservative 53.3%vs Labour 46.7%-30.8%
CellarheadConservative 36.5%vs Labour 31.8%2023 Conservative 58.6%vs Green 41.4%-25.5%
Cheadle North EastConservative 33.6%vs Labour 29.2%2023 Labour 40.7%vs Conservative 35.7%-24.2%
Cheadle South EastConservative 34.0%vs Labour 31.2%2023 Labour 56.6%vs Conservative 43.4%-27.9%
Cheadle WestLabour 31.7%vs Conservative 31.0%2023 Independent 67.7%vs Labour 18.3%-34.4%
CheddletonConservative 40.7%vs Labour 31.3%2023 Conservative 41.8%vs Labour 25.1%-43.6%
ChurnetConservative 47.5%vs Labour 24.4%2023 Conservative 71.4%vs Labour 18.7%-33.8%
DaneConservative 43.6%vs Labour 28.6%2023 Conservative 63.3%vs Green 36.7%-34.9%
Hamps ValleyConservative 46.6%vs Labour 24.2%2023 Conservative 64.6%vs Green 35.4%-35.7%
HortonConservative 40.5%vs Labour 28.4%2023 Conservative 54.3%vs Green 45.7%-39.5%
IpstonesConservative 37.2%vs Labour 29.8%2019 Independent 74.5%vs Conservative 25.5%-44.3%
Leek EastLabour 38.1%vs Conservative 30.8%2023 Labour 55.5%vs Conservative 36.9%-49.5%
Leek NorthLabour 37.9%vs Conservative 27.6%2023 Labour 87.3%vs Conservative 12.7%-25.1%
Leek SouthLabour 42.0%vs Conservative 28.9%2023 Labour 77.2%vs Green 11.7%-36.4%
Leek WestLabour 37.7%vs Conservative 34.1%2023 Labour 65.9%vs Conservative 34.1%-37.5%
ManifoldConservative 44.3%vs Labour 26.0%2023 Green 52.7%vs Conservative 47.3%-39.1%
WerringtonConservative 37.9%vs Labour 31.4%2023 Conservative 60.4%vs Independent 20.4%-34.5%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Staffordshire Moorlands at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Staffordshire Moorlands at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010Con holdKaren Bradley29.9%45.2%16.7%8.2% UKIP--6,68970.5%
2015Con holdKaren Bradley27.2%51.1%4.1%14.6% UKIP2.9%-10,17467.5%-3.0
2017Con holdKaren Bradley33.9%58.1%3.3%-1.2%3.4%10,83070.6%+3.1
2019notionalConservative winnerKaren Bradley 2019 MP, pre-review boundary26.7%64.1%6.1%-3.1%-17,65967.3%-3.3
2024Con holdKaren Bradley32.6%35.4%3.5%23.2% Ref5.3%-1,17562.0%-5.3

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Staffordshire Moorlands

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Staffordshire Moorlands. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

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