Constituency profile

Glenrothes and Mid Fife

Scotland · County constituency · Fife borough

Richard Baker MP
Sitting MP

Richard Baker

Labour

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
Scotland
County constituency, Fife council
Last 5 GE winners
LSSSL
SNP 3/5, Labour 2/5
EU referendum 2016
45.4% Leave
UK average 51.9%; -6.5pp below mean
Current outlook
SNP +7.2pp
Vulnerability score 9/10 (Labour projected to lose)
ScottishBrexit-marginal

About the Glenrothes and Mid Fife constituency

Glenrothes and Mid Fife is a county constituency in Scotland. The sitting MP is Richard Baker (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 44.3% to 36.1% for the SNP, a majority of 2,954 votes on a 51.1% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the SNP on 37.1% and Labour on 29.9%, a margin of 7.2 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.

Who lives in Glenrothes and Mid Fife? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
45.4%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
35.9%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
21.6%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
59.5%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
39.1%
UK average ~36%
Median age
44.3
UK median ~40
Age 65+
25.1%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
26.9%
UK average ~28%

How did Glenrothes and Mid Fife vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab gain from SNP · majority 2,954 votes (8.2pp) · turnout 51.1%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Glenrothes and Mid Fife

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from Scotland's 2022 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Holyrood 2026 layer

How Glenrothes and Mid Fife voted at the Scottish Parliament election (7 May 2026)

Glenrothes and Mid Fife crosses multiple Holyrood boundaries: Mid Fife and Glenrothes (55%), Cowdenbeath (31%), Kirkcaldy (11%), Fife North East (2%), Perthshire South and Kinross-shire (1%). Scotland uses the Additional Member System: voters cast one ballot for a constituency MSP and a second for a regional list. The figures below are the constituency vote.

Holyrood constituencyShare of Glenrothes and Mid FifeWinnerRunner-upElected MSP
Mid Fife and Glenrothes55%SNP 48.5%Reform UK 18.8%Jenny Gilruth
Cowdenbeath31%SNP 44.3%Labour 23.3%David Barratt
Kirkcaldy11%SNP 43.3%Labour 26.5%David Torrance
Fife North East2%Liberal Democrats 63.7%SNP 23.5%Willie Rennie
Perthshire South and Kinross-shire1%SNP 40.4%Conservative 26.5%Jim Fairlie

Holyrood 2026 constituency results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new Holyrood second-review boundary (in force from 7 May 2026).

Council layer (not Westminster)

Glenrothes and Mid Fife within Fife

Glenrothes and Mid Fife sits entirely within Fife Council. Fife was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seat
Fife
1 LSOAs
100%

Recent council by-elections

Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.

DateWardResultTop 3 vote shares
22 Jan 2026Glenrothes West & Kinglassie
Fife
SNP HOLDLab 44% Ref 27% Con 16%
6 Nov 2025Buckhaven Methil & Wemyss Villages
Fife
SNP GAIN from LabLab 43% Ref 29% Con 21%
25 Apr 2025Glenrothes Central and Thornton
Fife
SNP HOLD

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
Buckhaven, Methil and Wemyss VillagesLabour 49.4%vs SNP 37.7%2022 SNP 47.4%vs Labour 40.3%-37.7%
Glenrothes Central and ThorntonLabour 41.8%vs SNP 41.0%2022 SNP 48.7%vs Labour 27.9%-38.7%
Glenrothes North, Leslie and MarkinchLabour 40.5%vs SNP 38.9%2022 SNP 44.6%vs Labour 26.4%-43.3%
Glenrothes West and KinglassieLabour 44.1%vs SNP 39.7%2022 SNP 49.5%vs Labour 32.5%-38.0%
Lochgelly and CardendenLabour 52.5%vs SNP 35.6%No council data--

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Glenrothes and Mid Fife at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Glenrothes and Mid Fife at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010predecessorLab holdLindsay Roy Glenrothes MP62.3%7.2%7.7%1.0% UKIP--16,44859.8%
2015predecessorSNP gain from LabPeter Grant Glenrothes MP30.6%7.7%1.9%---13,89768.2%+8.4
2017predecessorSNP holdPeter Grant Glenrothes MP34.7%19.5%3.0%---3,26760.9%-7.3
2019notionalScottish National Party winnerPeter Grant Glenrothes MP, pre-review boundary27.4%15.3%4.4%--52.9%9,35260.6%
2024Lab gain from SNPRichard Baker44.3%5.5%4.4%9.8% Ref--2,95451.1%-9.5

Glenrothes and Mid Fife was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Glenrothes (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.

Constituencies most like Glenrothes and Mid Fife

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Glenrothes and Mid Fife. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

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