Hendon
London · Borough constituency · Barnet borough
About the Hendon constituency
Hendon is a borough constituency in London. The sitting MP is David Pinto-Duschinsky (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 38.4% to 38.4% for Labour, a majority of 15 votes on a 55.1% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 36.4% and Labour on 30.2%, a margin of 6.1 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Hendon? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Hendon vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Hendon
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Hendon within Barnet
Hendon sits entirely within Barnet Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Barnet | 100% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnt Oak | Labour 45.1%vs Conservative 29.2% | May 2026 Labour 36.0%vs Reform 22.9% | Labour share -9.1pp | 29.4% |
| Colindale North | Labour 47.5%vs Conservative 27.9% | May 2026 Labour 37.8%vs Green 22.9% | Labour share -9.6pp | 26.8% |
| Colindale South | Labour 41.2%vs Conservative 32.8% | May 2026 Labour 35.8%vs Conservative 26.1% | Labour share -5.4pp | 30.3% |
| Edgware | Conservative 46.6%vs Labour 32.0% | May 2026 Conservative 54.7%vs Reform 17.9% | Conservative share +8.1pp | 42.8% |
| Hendon | Conservative 46.6%vs Labour 32.6% | May 2026 Conservative 57.0%vs Reform 15.4% | Conservative share +10.4pp | 37.7% |
| Mill Hill | Conservative 44.4%vs Labour 34.6% | May 2026 Conservative 43.3%vs Labour 15.7% | Conservative share -1.2pp | 44.5% |
| West Hendon | Labour 42.6%vs Conservative 33.0% | May 2026 Labour 33.7%vs Reform 22.8% | Labour share -8.9pp | 35.7% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Hendon at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Hendon at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con gain from Lab | Matthew Offord | 42.1% | 42.3% | 12.4% | 106 | 63.6% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Matthew Offord | 41.5% | 49.0% | 2.2% | 3,724 | 65.9%+2.3 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Matthew Offord | 46.0% | 48.0% | 3.8% | 1,072 | 68.2%+2.3 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Matthew Offord 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 40.9% | 48.9% | 8.6% | 3,661 | 63.8%-4.4 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | David Pinto-Duschinsky | 38.4% | 38.4% | 4.8% | 15 | 55.1%-8.7 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Hendon
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Hendon. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Owner-occupied44.3 / 48.2vs 61.9
- ↑Graduate45.7 / 47.1vs 33.7
- ↑Private rent35.8 / 31.6vs 20.2
- ↓Owner-occupied44.3 / 45.2vs 61.9
- ↑Graduate45.7 / 46.8vs 33.7
- ↓Leave41.6 / 33.5vs 53.2
- ↓Owner-occupied44.3 / 46.7vs 61.9
- ↑Private rent35.8 / 32.2vs 20.2
- ↑Graduate45.7 / 44.9vs 33.7
- ↓Owner-occupied44.3 / 49.9vs 61.9
- ↓Age 65+14.2 / 15.4vs 22.7
- ↑Private rent35.8 / 28.3vs 20.2
- ↓Age 65+14.2 / 14.6vs 22.7
- ↓Leave41.6 / 44.7vs 53.2
- ↓Owner-occupied44.3 / 53.1vs 61.9
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.