Ealing North
London · Borough constituency · Ealing borough
About the Ealing North constituency
Ealing North is a borough constituency in London. The sitting MP is James Murray (Labour (Co-op)), first elected in December 2019. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 47.8% to 18.8% for the Conservatives, a majority of 12,519 votes on a 57.8% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 43.2% and the Conservatives on 17.3%, a margin of 25.9 points.
Who lives in Ealing North? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Ealing North vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Ealing North
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Ealing North within Ealing
Ealing North sits entirely within Ealing Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Ealing | 100% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central Greenford | Labour 46.0%vs Conservative 19.3% | May 2026 Labour 31.9%vs Conservative 20.9% | Labour share -14.1pp | - |
| Greenford Broadway | Labour 49.1%vs Conservative 19.6% | May 2026 Labour 33.0%vs Reform 20.5% | Labour share -16.1pp | - |
| North Greenford | Labour 49.2%vs Conservative 19.0% | May 2026 Conservative 39.8%vs Labour 30.2% | Labour→Conservative +19.9pp | - |
| North Hanwell | Labour 48.3%vs Conservative 17.0% | May 2026 Labour 36.5%vs Green 29.7% | Labour share -11.8pp | - |
| Northolt Mandeville | Labour 48.6%vs Conservative 18.3% | May 2026 Labour 38.2%vs Reform 21.5% | Labour share -10.4pp | - |
| Northolt West End | Labour 49.3%vs Conservative 15.0% | May 2026 Labour 43.3%vs Reform 23.6% | Labour share -5.9pp | - |
| Perivale | Labour 48.0%vs Conservative 20.4% | May 2026 Labour 37.0%vs Conservative 22.6% | Labour share -11.0pp | - |
| Pitshanger | Labour 44.1%vs Conservative 21.2% | May 2026 Labour 31.9%vs Conservative 26.3% | Labour share -12.2pp | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Ealing North at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Ealing North at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Stephen Pound | 50.4% | 30.9% | 13.2% | 9,301 | 65.2% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | Stephen Pound | 55.1% | 29.7% | 3.2% | 12,326 | 65.7%+0.5 |
| 2017 | Lab hold | Stephen Pound | 66.0% | 28.5% | 2.4% | 19,693 | 70.2%+4.5 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | James Murray 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 56.3% | 31.9% | 8.8% | 11,908 | 66.8%-3.4 |
| 2024 | Lab hold | James Murray | 47.8% | 18.8% | 5.9% | 12,519 | 57.8%-9.0 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Ealing North
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Ealing North. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Owner-occupied49.9 / 53.1vs 61.9
- ↓Age 65+15.4 / 14.6vs 22.7
- ↑Private rent28.3 / 27.0vs 20.2
- ↓Owner-occupied49.9 / 46.7vs 61.9
- ↑Private rent28.3 / 32.2vs 20.2
- ↓Age 65+15.4 / 14.7vs 22.7
- ↓Owner-occupied49.9 / 44.3vs 61.9
- ↓Age 65+15.4 / 14.2vs 22.7
- ↑Private rent28.3 / 35.8vs 20.2
- ↓Owner-occupied49.9 / 50.3vs 61.9
- ↓Leave46.3 / 41.5vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate39.0 / 39.4vs 33.7
- ↓Owner-occupied49.9 / 48.2vs 61.9
- ↑Private rent28.3 / 31.6vs 20.2
- ↓Age 65+15.4 / 13.3vs 22.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.