Leicester South
East Midlands · Borough constituency · Leicester borough
About the Leicester South constituency
Leicester South is a borough constituency in the East Midlands. The sitting MP is Shockat Adam (Independent), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, other parties won with 37.1% to 32.9% for Labour, a majority of 979 votes on a 59.0% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has other parties on 36.1% and Labour on 23.3%, a margin of 12.8 points.
Who lives in Leicester South? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Leicester South vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Leicester South
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Leicester South within Leicester
Leicester South sits entirely within Leicester Council. Leicester was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Leicester | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Feb 2026 | Stoneygate | Grn GAIN from Lab | Grn 30% Other 29% Lab 28% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castle | Labour 34.2%vs Others 33.7% | 2023 Green 49.9%vs Labour 38.8% | - | 31.5% |
| Evington | Others 41.0%vs Conservative 21.9% | 2023 Conservative 34.1%vs Lib Dem 30.6% | - | 48.0% |
| Eyres Monsell | Others 34.4%vs Labour 34.0% | 2023 Labour 54.0%vs Conservative 28.7% | - | 18.6% |
| Knighton | Labour 34.4%vs Others 30.6% | 2023 Labour 45.1%vs Lib Dem 21.6% | - | 39.3% |
| Saffron | Labour 35.5%vs Others 31.4% | 2023 Labour 46.9%vs Green 26.1% | - | 22.5% |
| Spinney Hills | Others 42.8%vs Labour 30.9% | 2023 Labour 57.6%vs Conservative 21.3% | - | 49.3% |
| Stoneygate | Others 44.1%vs Labour 30.3% | 2023 Labour 45.2%vs Independent 24.2% | - | 46.8% |
| Wycliffe | Others 43.1%vs Labour 31.7% | 2023 Labour 71.1%vs Conservative 23.0% | - | 56.8% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Leicester South at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Leicester South at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Peter Soulsby | 45.6% | 21.4% | 26.9% | 8,808 | 61.1% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | Jon Ashworth | 59.8% | 21.0% | 4.6% | 17,845 | 62.5%+1.4 |
| 2017 | Lab hold | Jonathan Ashworth | 73.6% | 21.6% | 2.5% | 26,261 | 66.9%+4.4 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Jonathan Ashworth 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 68.2% | 21.8% | 4.3% | 22,023 | 66.9%+0.0 |
| 2024 | Ind gain from Lab | Shockat Adam | 32.9% | 11.5% | 3.4% | 979 | 59.0%-7.9 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Leicester South
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Leicester South. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Owner-occupied42.8 / 48.9vs 61.9
- ↑Private rent34.7 / 31.5vs 20.2
- ↓Age 65+13.0 / 12.7vs 22.7
- ↑Private rent34.7 / 33.1vs 20.2
- ↓Owner-occupied42.8 / 48.3vs 61.9
- ↓Leave42.4 / 39.1vs 53.2
- ↓Owner-occupied42.8 / 45.3vs 61.9
- ↓Age 65+13.0 / 14.2vs 22.7
- ↑Private rent34.7 / 27.4vs 20.2
- ↓Owner-occupied42.8 / 46.8vs 61.9
- ↑Private rent34.7 / 31.3vs 20.2
- ↓Age 65+13.0 / 13.0vs 22.7
- ↓Owner-occupied42.8 / 45.2vs 61.9
- ↑Private rent34.7 / 37.6vs 20.2
- ↓Leave42.4 / 42.8vs 53.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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