Hayes and Harlington
London · Borough constituency · Hillingdon borough
About the Hayes and Harlington constituency
Hayes and Harlington is a borough constituency in London. The sitting MP is John McDonnell (Labour), first elected in May 1997. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 53.3% to 21.9% for the Conservatives, a majority of 12,031 votes on a 51.5% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 42.8% and the Conservatives on 21.4%, a margin of 21.4 points.
Who lives in Hayes and Harlington? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Hayes and Harlington vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Hayes and Harlington
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Hayes and Harlington within Hillingdon
Hayes and Harlington sits entirely within Hillingdon Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Hillingdon | 100% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belmore | Labour 58.8%vs Conservative 20.9% | May 2026 Labour 40.5%vs Conservative 23.6% | Labour share -18.2pp | 34.1% |
| Charville | Labour 46.3%vs Conservative 28.5% | May 2026 Conservative 42.6%vs Labour 26.9% | Labour→Conservative +16.8pp | 43.5% |
| Hayes Town | Labour 55.2%vs Conservative 18.7% | May 2026 Labour 31.3%vs Conservative 19.4% | Labour share -23.8pp | 30.8% |
| Heathrow Villages | Labour 51.6%vs Conservative 23.3% | May 2026 Labour 26.7%vs Reform 23.6% | Labour share -24.9pp | 33.9% |
| Pinkwell | Labour 54.2%vs Conservative 19.4% | May 2026 Labour 41.0%vs Conservative 21.1% | Labour share -13.2pp | 34.1% |
| West Drayton | Labour 53.1%vs Conservative 23.3% | May 2026 Reform 27.3%vs Labour 25.9% | Labour→Reform +21.7pp | 38.6% |
| Wood End | Labour 52.6%vs Conservative 21.3% | May 2026 Labour 34.5%vs Green 22.5% | Labour share -18.2pp | 33.4% |
| Yeading | Labour 51.4%vs Conservative 20.4% | May 2026 Labour 31.7%vs Reform 21.3% | Labour share -19.7pp | 34.4% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Hayes and Harlington at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Hayes and Harlington at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | John McDonnell | 54.8% | 29.4% | 8.7% | 10,824 | 60.7% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | John McDonnell | 59.6% | 24.7% | 2.0% | 15,700 | 60.2%-0.5 |
| 2017 | Lab hold | John McDonnell | 66.5% | 28.6% | 1.3% | 18,115 | 65.2%+5.0 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | John McDonnell 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 55.8% | 34.7% | 4.4% | 9,261 | 60.4%-4.8 |
| 2024 | Lab hold | John McDonnell | 53.3% | 21.9% | 3.4% | 12,031 | 51.5%-8.9 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Hayes and Harlington
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Hayes and Harlington. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Owner-occupied46.8 / 48.9vs 61.9
- ↑Private rent31.3 / 31.5vs 20.2
- ↓Age 65+13.0 / 12.7vs 22.7
- ↓Owner-occupied46.8 / 45.3vs 61.9
- ↓Age 65+13.0 / 14.2vs 22.7
- ↑Private rent31.3 / 27.4vs 20.2
- ↓Owner-occupied46.8 / 45.2vs 61.9
- ↑Private rent31.3 / 37.6vs 20.2
- ↓Age 65+13.0 / 14.8vs 22.7
- ↓Owner-occupied46.8 / 48.3vs 61.9
- ↑Private rent31.3 / 33.1vs 20.2
- ↓Age 65+13.0 / 15.0vs 22.7
- ↓Age 65+13.0 / 16.2vs 22.7
- ↑Private rent31.3 / 26.7vs 20.2
- ↑Under 3536.2 / 34.4vs 30.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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