Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North
West Midlands · Borough constituency
About the Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North constituency
Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North is a borough constituency in the West Midlands. The sitting MP is Liam Byrne (Labour), first elected in July 2004. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 31.2% to 26.6% for other parties, a majority of 1,566 votes on a 43.9% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has other parties on 26.2% and Reform UK on 25.0%, a margin of 1.2 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North within Birmingham and Solihull
Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North crosses council boundaries: Birmingham (76%), Solihull (24%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham | 76% | View projection › |
| Solihull | 24% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bromford & Hodge Hill | Labour 35.8%vs Others 26.9% | May 2026 Labour 29.9%vs Reform 17.8% | Labour share -5.9pp | - |
| Castle Bromwich | Conservative 25.8%vs Others 23.4% | May 2026 Reform 57.1%vs Conservative 27.6% | Conservative→Reform +17.7pp | - |
| Garretts Green | Labour 31.4%vs Others 28.0% | May 2026 Labour 39.3%vs Reform 34.4% | Labour share +7.9pp | - |
| Glebe Farm & Tile Cross | Labour 31.0%vs Others 25.6% | May 2026 Reform 28.6%vs Others 27.9% | Labour→Reform +8.4pp | - |
| Heartlands | Labour 43.7%vs Others 23.4% | May 2026 Labour 39.0%vs Others 32.4% | Labour share -4.7pp | - |
| Shard End | Others 31.4%vs Labour 28.9% | May 2026 Reform 51.3%vs Labour 19.8% | Others→Reform +30.8pp | - |
| Smith's Wood | Others 31.2%vs Labour 23.4% | May 2026 Reform 50.6%vs Green 32.4%now part of Kingshurst Smiths Wood | Others→Reform +30.0pp | - |
| Ward End | Labour 36.8%vs Others 23.3% | May 2026 Others 62.6%vs Labour 15.4% | Labour→Others +42.0pp | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Lab hold | Liam Byrne Birmingham, Hodge Hill MP | 52.0% | 11.6% | 27.7% | 10,302 | 56.6% |
| 2015predecessor | Lab hold | Liam Byrne Birmingham, Hodge Hill MP | 68.4% | 11.5% | 6.4% | 23,362 | 54.5%-2.1 |
| 2017predecessor | Lab hold | Liam Byrne Birmingham, Hodge Hill MP | 81.1% | 14.2% | 1.7% | 31,026 | 61.3%+6.8 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Liam Byrne Birmingham, Hodge Hill MP, pre-review boundary | 59.9% | 28.6% | 4.3% | 12,951 | 53.7% |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Liam Byrne | 31.2% | 13.6% | 2.8% | 1,566 | 43.9%-9.8 |
Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Birmingham, Hodge Hill (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Graduate20.4 / 22.9vs 33.7
- ↑No quals29.5 / 26.7vs 18.0
- ↑Social rent28.4 / 23.6vs 16.8
- ↑No quals29.5 / 28.4vs 18.0
- ↓Graduate20.4 / 25.0vs 33.7
- ↓Owner-occupied54.3 / 54.1vs 61.9
- ↓Graduate20.4 / 23.8vs 33.7
- ↑No quals29.5 / 27.3vs 18.0
- ↑Social rent28.4 / 23.8vs 16.8
- ↓Graduate20.4 / 22.5vs 33.7
- ↑No quals29.5 / 27.9vs 18.0
- ↓Age 65+16.6 / 16.9vs 22.7
- ↓Graduate20.4 / 23.6vs 33.7
- ↑No quals29.5 / 27.6vs 18.0
- ↓Employed48.2 / 49.8vs 57.3
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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