Birmingham Yardley
West Midlands · Borough constituency · Birmingham borough
About the Birmingham Yardley constituency
Birmingham Yardley is a borough constituency in the West Midlands. The sitting MP is Jess Phillips (Labour), first elected in May 2015. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 31.2% to 29.3% for other parties, a majority of 693 votes on a 49.4% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has other parties on 28.4% and Reform UK on 19.6%, a margin of 8.9 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Birmingham Yardley? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Birmingham Yardley vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Birmingham Yardley
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Birmingham Yardley within Birmingham
Birmingham Yardley sits entirely within Birmingham Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham | 100% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Acocks Green | Labour 32.3%vs Others 27.2% | May 2026 Lib Dem 34.3%vs Green 21.5% | Labour→Lib Dem +21.2pp | - |
| Sheldon | Labour 30.4%vs Others 25.9% | May 2026 Reform 40.3%vs Lib Dem 32.5% | Labour→Reform +23.2pp | - |
| Small Heath | Others 36.6%vs Labour 31.2% | May 2026 Others 34.3%vs Lib Dem 29.8% | Others→Others +35.4pp | - |
| South Yardley | Labour 30.9%vs Others 26.9% | May 2026 Lib Dem 49.0%vs Reform 27.3% | Labour→Lib Dem +31.2pp | - |
| Tyseley & Hay Mills | Labour 32.2%vs Others 31.0% | May 2026 Green 20.5%vs Others 17.6% | Labour→Green +14.8pp | - |
| Yardley East | Labour 30.6%vs Others 27.6% | May 2026 Lib Dem 34.6%vs Reform 26.9% | Labour→Lib Dem +20.5pp | - |
| Yardley West & Stechford | Others 32.1%vs Labour 30.4% | May 2026 Lib Dem 60.8%vs Reform 12.9% | Others→Lib Dem +41.4pp | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Birmingham Yardley at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Birmingham Yardley at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | LD hold | John Hemming | 32.2% | 19.2% | 39.6% | 3,002 | 56.5% |
| 2015 | Lab gain from LD | Jess Phillips | 41.6% | 14.0% | 25.6% | 6,595 | 57.0%+0.5 |
| 2017 | Lab hold | Jess Phillips | 57.1% | 19.8% | 17.9% | 16,574 | 61.3%+4.3 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Jess Phillips 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 58.1% | 26.7% | 8.9% | 13,141 | 58.3%-3.0 |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Jess Phillips | 31.2% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 693 | 49.4%-8.9 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Birmingham Yardley
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Birmingham Yardley. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Graduate23.6 / 21.9vs 33.7
- ↑No quals27.6 / 28.7vs 18.0
- ↓Employed49.8 / 49.9vs 57.3
- ↓Graduate23.6 / 22.5vs 33.7
- ↑No quals27.6 / 27.9vs 18.0
- ↓Age 65+16.3 / 16.9vs 22.7
- ↑No quals27.6 / 26.7vs 18.0
- ↓Graduate23.6 / 25.5vs 33.7
- ↓Employed49.8 / 50.5vs 57.3
- ↓Age 65+16.3 / 18.0vs 22.7
- ↑No quals27.6 / 21.9vs 18.0
- ↓Graduate23.6 / 29.9vs 33.7
- ↓Graduate23.6 / 20.4vs 33.7
- ↑No quals27.6 / 29.5vs 18.0
- ↓Employed49.8 / 48.2vs 57.3
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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