Luton North
East of England · Borough constituency · Luton borough
About the Luton North constituency
Luton North is a borough constituency in the East of England. The sitting MP is Sarah Owen (Labour), first elected in December 2019. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 37.9% to 21.7% for other parties, a majority of 7,510 votes on a 51.8% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 32.8% and Reform UK on 22.7%, a margin of 10.1 points.
Who lives in Luton North? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Luton North vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Luton North
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Luton North within Luton
Luton North sits entirely within Luton Council. Luton was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Luton | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Sep 2025 | Stopsley | LD HOLD | LD 41% Ref 36% Lab 11% |
| 27 Sep 2024 | Barnfield | LD HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barnfield | Labour 38.4%vs Others 20.7% | 2023 Lib Dem 54.4%vs Labour 34.2% | - | 34.1% |
| Beech Hill | Others 40.8%vs Labour 30.1% | 2023 Labour 70.2%vs Lib Dem 29.8% | - | 34.9% |
| Bramingham | Labour 37.1%vs Conservative 21.4% | 2023 Conservative 55.3%vs Labour 44.7% | - | 30.0% |
| Challney | Labour 39.7%vs Others 22.9% | 2023 Labour 71.8%vs Lib Dem 28.1% | - | 24.0% |
| Leagrave | Labour 39.4%vs Conservative 19.2% | 2023 Labour 57.4%vs Conservative 35.7% | - | 25.6% |
| Lewsey | Labour 39.5%vs Conservative 19.4% | 2023 Labour 82.3%vs Conservative 11.7% | - | 21.3% |
| Northwell | Labour 39.6%vs Conservative 19.2% | 2023 Labour 66.0%vs Conservative 26.8% | - | 27.3% |
| Poets | Labour 38.5%vs Conservative 20.4% | 2023 Labour 55.3%vs Lib Dem 44.7% | - | 28.7% |
| Saints | Labour 40.6%vs Others 22.5% | 2023 Labour 57.8%vs Lib Dem 42.2% | - | 32.9% |
| Stopsley | Others 54.1%vs Labour 19.9% | 2023 Lib Dem 78.0%vs Labour 21.9% | - | 30.7% |
| Sundon Park | Labour 39.1%vs Conservative 19.6% | 2023 Lib Dem 59.3%vs Labour 40.7% | - | 30.1% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Luton North at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Luton North at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Kelvin Hopkins | 49.3% | 31.8% | 11.1% | 7,520 | 65.5% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | Kelvin Hopkins | 52.2% | 29.9% | 3.1% | 9,504 | 63.2%-2.3 |
| 2017 | Lab hold | Kelvin Hopkins | 63.8% | 33.0% | 1.7% | 14,364 | 69.8%+6.6 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Sarah Owen 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 53.9% | 34.3% | 4.6% | 8,740 | 60.9%-8.9 |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Sarah Owen | 37.9% | 18.5% | 4.9% | 7,510 | 51.8%-9.1 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Luton North
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Luton North. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Age 65+18.0 / 16.3vs 22.7
- ↑Leave59.1 / 64.1vs 53.2
- ↓Age 65+18.0 / 17.1vs 22.7
- ↑Leave59.1 / 63.4vs 53.2
- ↓Age 65+18.0 / 16.9vs 22.7
- ↑Leave59.1 / 56.2vs 53.2
- ↓Age 65+18.0 / 17.2vs 22.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.