Blackburn
North West · Borough constituency · Blackburn with Darwen borough
About the Blackburn constituency
Blackburn is a borough constituency in the North West. The sitting MP is Mr Adnan Hussain (Independent), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, other parties won with 46.5% to 26.7% for Labour, a majority of 132 votes on a 53.1% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has other parties on 42.9% and Labour on 18.1%, a margin of 24.8 points.
Who lives in Blackburn? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Blackburn vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Blackburn
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Blackburn within Blackburn with Darwen
Blackburn sits entirely within Blackburn with Darwen Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Blackburn with Darwen | 100% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Audley & Queen's Park | Others 54.1%vs Labour 24.8% | May 2026 Others 64.2%vs Labour 18.6% | Others→Others +59.2pp | 35.0% |
| Bastwell & Daisyfield | Others 54.4%vs Labour 25.9% | May 2026 Others 51.3%vs Labour 39.5% | Others→Others +52.9pp | 47.2% |
| Billinge & Beardwood | Others 50.8%vs Labour 25.2% | May 2026 Others 41.9%vs Labour 16.8% | Others→Others +46.4pp | 42.9% |
| Blackburn Central | Others 48.2%vs Labour 26.4% | May 2026 Labour 41.1%vs Others 27.8% | Others→Labour +31.5pp | 32.7% |
| Blackburn South East | Others 38.7%vs Labour 28.6% | May 2026 Reform 46.6%vs Labour 27.0% | Others→Reform +34.2pp | 27.8% |
| Ewood | Others 37.7%vs Labour 28.7% | May 2026 Reform 51.2%vs Others 19.4% | Others→Reform +35.8pp | 32.2% |
| Little Harwood & Whitebirk | Others 50.9%vs Labour 26.1% | May 2026 Others 48.5%vs Labour 25.3% | Others→Others +49.7pp | 39.7% |
| Livesey with Pleasington | Others 36.9%vs Labour 26.8% | May 2026 Reform 43.3%vs Conservative 24.6% | Others→Reform +31.4pp | 46.4% |
| Mill Hill & Moorgate | Others 37.2%vs Labour 28.9% | May 2026 Reform 53.7%vs Labour 23.8% | Others→Reform +36.7pp | 34.2% |
| Roe Lee | Others 47.2%vs Labour 26.3% | May 2026 Others 47.2%vs Reform 25.6% | Others→Others +47.2pp | 39.6% |
| Shear Brow & Corporation Park | Others 55.4%vs Labour 25.1% | May 2026 Labour 47.9%vs Others 44.7% | Others→Labour +39.1pp | 47.6% |
| Wensley Fold | Others 51.4%vs Labour 26.5% | May 2026 Others 43.2%vs Labour 36.2% | Others→Others +47.3pp | 42.4% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Blackburn at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Blackburn at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Jack Straw | 47.8% | 26.1% | 15.2% | 9,856 | 62.9% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | Kate Hollern | 56.3% | 27.3% | 2.2% | 12,760 | 60.1%-2.8 |
| 2017 | Lab hold | Kate Hollern | 69.8% | 26.9% | 1.5% | 20,368 | 67.2%+7.1 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Kate Hollern 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 66.0% | 23.3% | 2.4% | 18,616 | 61.8%-5.4 |
| 2024 | Ind gain from Lab | Adnan Hussain | 26.7% | 8.9% | 1.8% | 132 | 53.1%-8.7 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Blackburn
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Blackburn. Politics shown for context.
- ↑No quals26.7 / 27.9vs 18.0
- ↓Graduate25.5 / 22.5vs 33.7
- ↓Age 65+17.2 / 16.9vs 22.7
- ↑No quals26.7 / 28.7vs 18.0
- ↓Graduate25.5 / 21.9vs 33.7
- ↓Employed50.5 / 49.9vs 57.3
- ↑No quals26.7 / 27.6vs 18.0
- ↓Graduate25.5 / 23.6vs 33.7
- ↓Employed50.5 / 49.8vs 57.3
- ↑No quals26.7 / 29.5vs 18.0
- ↓Graduate25.5 / 20.4vs 33.7
- ↓Employed50.5 / 48.2vs 57.3
- ↓Age 65+17.2 / 18.0vs 22.7
- ↓Graduate25.5 / 29.9vs 33.7
- ↑No quals26.7 / 21.9vs 18.0
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.