Constituency profile

Blackburn

North West · Borough constituency · Blackburn with Darwen borough

Mr Adnan Hussain MP
Sitting MP

Mr Adnan Hussain

Independent

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
North West
Borough constituency, Blackburn with Darwen council
Last 5 GE winners
LLLL?
Labour 4/5, Ind 1/5
EU referendum 2016
53.7% Leave
UK average 51.9%; +1.8pp above mean
Current outlook
Others +24.8pp
vs Labour 18.1%
NorthernBrexit-marginalWorking-class profileDiverse

About the Blackburn constituency

Blackburn is a borough constituency in the North West. The sitting MP is Mr Adnan Hussain (Independent), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, other parties won with 46.5% to 26.7% for Labour, a majority of 132 votes on a 53.1% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has other parties on 42.9% and Labour on 18.1%, a margin of 24.8 points.

Who lives in Blackburn? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
53.7%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
25.5%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
26.7%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
57.1%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
42.2%
UK average ~36%
Median age
34.8
UK median ~40
Age 65+
17.2%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
35.6%
UK average ~28%

How did Blackburn vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Ind gain from Lab · majority 132 votes (19.8pp) · turnout 53.1%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Blackburn

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Blackburn within Blackburn with Darwen

Blackburn sits entirely within Blackburn with Darwen Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seatProjection
Blackburn with Darwen
63 LSOAs
100%View projection ›

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
Audley & Queen's ParkOthers 54.1%vs Labour 24.8%May 2026 Others 64.2%vs Labour 18.6%
Others→Others
+59.2pp
35.0%
Bastwell & DaisyfieldOthers 54.4%vs Labour 25.9%May 2026 Others 51.3%vs Labour 39.5%
Others→Others
+52.9pp
47.2%
Billinge & BeardwoodOthers 50.8%vs Labour 25.2%May 2026 Others 41.9%vs Labour 16.8%
Others→Others
+46.4pp
42.9%
Blackburn CentralOthers 48.2%vs Labour 26.4%May 2026 Labour 41.1%vs Others 27.8%
Others→Labour
+31.5pp
32.7%
Blackburn South EastOthers 38.7%vs Labour 28.6%May 2026 Reform 46.6%vs Labour 27.0%
Others→Reform
+34.2pp
27.8%
EwoodOthers 37.7%vs Labour 28.7%May 2026 Reform 51.2%vs Others 19.4%
Others→Reform
+35.8pp
32.2%
Little Harwood & WhitebirkOthers 50.9%vs Labour 26.1%May 2026 Others 48.5%vs Labour 25.3%
Others→Others
+49.7pp
39.7%
Livesey with PleasingtonOthers 36.9%vs Labour 26.8%May 2026 Reform 43.3%vs Conservative 24.6%
Others→Reform
+31.4pp
46.4%
Mill Hill & MoorgateOthers 37.2%vs Labour 28.9%May 2026 Reform 53.7%vs Labour 23.8%
Others→Reform
+36.7pp
34.2%
Roe LeeOthers 47.2%vs Labour 26.3%May 2026 Others 47.2%vs Reform 25.6%
Others→Others
+47.2pp
39.6%
Shear Brow & Corporation ParkOthers 55.4%vs Labour 25.1%May 2026 Labour 47.9%vs Others 44.7%
Others→Labour
+39.1pp
47.6%
Wensley FoldOthers 51.4%vs Labour 26.5%May 2026 Others 43.2%vs Labour 36.2%
Others→Others
+47.3pp
42.4%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Blackburn at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Blackburn at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010Lab holdJack Straw47.8%26.1%15.2%2.1% UKIP-8.8%9,85662.9%
2015Lab holdKate Hollern56.3%27.3%2.2%14.3% UKIP--12,76060.1%-2.8
2017Lab holdKate Hollern69.8%26.9%1.5%--1.8%20,36867.2%+7.1
2019notionalLabour winnerKate Hollern 2019 MP, pre-review boundary66.0%23.3%2.4%-1.6%6.7%18,61661.8%-5.4
2024Ind gain from LabAdnan Hussain26.7%8.9%1.8%12.5% Ref3.6%46.5%13253.1%-8.7

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Blackburn

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Blackburn. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.