Smethwick
West Midlands · Borough constituency · Sandwell borough
About the Smethwick constituency
Smethwick is a borough constituency in the West Midlands. The sitting MP is Gurinder Singh Josan (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 48.0% to 16.1% for Reform UK, a majority of 11,188 votes on a 48.2% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 37.6% and Reform UK on 23.0%, a margin of 14.5 points.
Who lives in Smethwick? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Smethwick vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Smethwick
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Smethwick within Sandwell
Smethwick sits entirely within Sandwell Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Sandwell | 100% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abbey | Labour 53.2%vs Reform 16.0% | 2024 Labour 69.0%vs Green 13.7% | - | 36.0% |
| Blackheath | Labour 40.7%vs Reform 19.3% | May 2026 Reform 49.3%vs Labour 25.8% | Labour→Reform +22.4pp | 34.9% |
| Bristnall | Labour 45.2%vs Conservative 16.6% | May 2026 Reform 35.4%vs Labour 34.3% | Labour→Reform +15.8pp | 34.5% |
| Langley | Labour 42.6%vs Reform 18.6% | May 2026 Reform 40.8%vs Labour 28.8% | Labour→Reform +18.1pp | 33.1% |
| Old Warley | Labour 43.8%vs Conservative 18.6% | May 2026 Reform 37.6%vs Labour 33.6% | Labour→Reform +15.9pp | 39.6% |
| Smethwick | Labour 51.7%vs Reform 16.3% | May 2026 Labour 47.0%vs Green 23.5% | Labour share -4.6pp | - |
| Soho and Victoria | Labour 51.7%vs Reform 15.4% | May 2026 Labour 53.9%vs Green 26.4% | Labour share +2.1pp | - |
| St Pauls | Labour 54.3%vs Reform 13.5% | May 2026 Labour 58.1%vs Green 18.8% | Labour share +3.7pp | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Smethwick at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Smethwick at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Lab hold | John Spellar Warley MP | 52.9% | 24.8% | 15.5% | 10,756 | 61.0% |
| 2015predecessor | Lab hold | John Spellar Warley MP | 58.2% | 19.3% | 2.1% | 14,702 | 59.4%-1.6 |
| 2017predecessor | Lab hold | John Spellar Warley MP | 67.2% | 26.2% | 1.9% | 16,483 | 63.1%+3.7 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | John Spellar Warley MP, pre-review boundary | 57.0% | 30.2% | 4.5% | 10,974 | 57.5% |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Gurinder Josan | 48.0% | 12.9% | 2.9% | 11,188 | 48.2%-9.3 |
Smethwick was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Warley (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Smethwick
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Smethwick. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave64.1 / 67.8vs 53.2
- ↑No quals28.4 / 27.3vs 18.0
- ↓Graduate25.0 / 23.8vs 33.7
- ↑No quals28.4 / 29.5vs 18.0
- ↓Graduate25.0 / 20.4vs 33.7
- ↓Owner-occupied54.1 / 54.3vs 61.9
- ↑Leave64.1 / 63.4vs 53.2
- ↓Employed52.7 / 53.5vs 57.3
- ↑No quals28.4 / 22.0vs 18.0
- ↑No quals28.4 / 26.7vs 18.0
- ↓Graduate25.0 / 22.9vs 33.7
- ↑Leave64.1 / 61.3vs 53.2
- ↑No quals28.4 / 29.1vs 18.0
- ↑Leave64.1 / 67.9vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate25.0 / 22.8vs 33.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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