Constituency profile

Wolverhampton West

West Midlands · Borough constituency · Wolverhampton borough

Warinder Juss MP
Sitting MP

Warinder Juss

Labour

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
West Midlands
Borough constituency, Wolverhampton council
Last 5 GE winners
CLLCL
Labour 3/5, Conservative 2/5
EU referendum 2016
63.4% Leave
UK average 51.9%; +11.5pp above mean
Current outlook
Labour +15.0pp
vs Reform UK 23.9%
MidlandsStrong Leave areaDiverse

About the Wolverhampton West constituency

Wolverhampton West is a borough constituency in the West Midlands. The sitting MP is Warinder Juss (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 44.3% to 26.3% for the Conservatives, a majority of 7,868 votes on a 56.1% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 39.0% and Reform UK on 23.9%, a margin of 15.0 points.

Who lives in Wolverhampton West? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
63.4%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
31.7%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
22.0%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
59.2%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
40.0%
UK average ~36%
Median age
40.2
UK median ~40
Age 65+
21.7%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
30.3%
UK average ~28%

How did Wolverhampton West vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab gain from Con · majority 7,868 votes (18.0pp) · turnout 56.1%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Wolverhampton West

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Wolverhampton West within Wolverhampton

Wolverhampton West sits entirely within Wolverhampton Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seatProjection
Wolverhampton
72 LSOAs
100%View projection ›

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
BlakenhallLabour 54.0%vs Conservative 19.1%May 2026 Labour 46.5%vs Green 19.7%
Labour share
-7.5pp
32.7%
Bushbury NorthLabour 40.7%vs Conservative 31.3%May 2026 Reform 41.1%vs Conservative 21.5%
Labour→Reform
+20.1pp
35.9%
GraiseleyLabour 51.3%vs Conservative 20.8%May 2026 Labour 37.6%vs Green 22.6%
Labour share
-13.8pp
34.5%
Merry HillLabour 40.5%vs Conservative 29.4%May 2026 Reform 34.4%vs Labour 29.6%
Labour→Reform
+15.1pp
42.6%
OxleyLabour 45.0%vs Conservative 23.7%May 2026 Reform 33.4%vs Labour 25.8%
Labour→Reform
+18.3pp
33.9%
ParkLabour 48.8%vs Conservative 22.1%May 2026 Labour 31.4%vs Green 30.1%
Labour share
-17.5pp
36.1%
PennLabour 41.0%vs Conservative 31.5%May 2026 Conservative 35.7%vs Labour 28.0%
Labour→Conservative
+8.6pp
45.5%
St PetersLabour 48.6%vs Reform 15.3%May 2026 Labour 47.8%vs Green 28.2%
Labour share
-0.8pp
26.7%
Tettenhall RegisLabour 37.7%vs Conservative 33.1%May 2026 Conservative 32.8%vs Reform 31.9%
Labour→Conservative
+10.7pp
43.1%
Tettenhall WightwickConservative 36.9%vs Labour 35.1%May 2026 Conservative 36.9%vs Reform 32.4%
Conservative share
-0.0pp
47.4%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Wolverhampton West at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Wolverhampton West at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010predecessorCon gain from LabPaul Uppal Wolverhampton South West MP39.0%40.7%16.0%3.7% UKIP-0.6%69168.2%
2015predecessorLab gain from ConRob Marris Wolverhampton South West MP43.2%41.2%2.1%10.7% UKIP2.6%0.1%80166.6%-1.6
2017predecessorLab holdEleanor Smith Wolverhampton South West MP49.4%44.2%1.9%2.4% UKIP1.4%0.8%2,18570.6%+4.0
2019notionalConservative winnerStuart Anderson Wolverhampton South West MP, pre-review boundary45.5%47.4%4.4%-0.2%2.5%93467.4%
2024Lab gain from ConWarinder Juss44.3%26.3%3.2%13.9% Ref5.8%6.5%7,86856.1%-11.3

Wolverhampton West was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Wolverhampton South West (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.

Constituencies most like Wolverhampton West

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Wolverhampton West. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

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