Uxbridge and South Ruislip
London · Borough constituency · Hillingdon borough
About the Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency
Uxbridge and South Ruislip is a borough constituency in London. The sitting MP is Danny Beales (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 36.1% to 34.9% for the Conservatives, a majority of 587 votes on a 61.4% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 32.9% and Labour on 27.6%, a margin of 5.3 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Uxbridge and South Ruislip? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Uxbridge and South Ruislip vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Uxbridge and South Ruislip
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Uxbridge and South Ruislip within Hillingdon
Uxbridge and South Ruislip sits entirely within Hillingdon Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Hillingdon | 100% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colham & Cowley | Labour 40.3%vs Conservative 37.9% | May 2026 Conservative 38.3%vs Reform 24.2% | Labour→Conservative +9.5pp | 39.7% |
| Hillingdon East | Conservative 36.8%vs Labour 33.1% | May 2026 Conservative 45.2%vs Reform 19.9% | Conservative share +8.4pp | 41.4% |
| Hillingdon West | Labour 36.3%vs Conservative 32.1% | 2022 Conservative 54.4%vs Labour 35.5% | - | 32.0% |
| Ickenham & South Harefield | Conservative 36.0%vs Labour 30.2% | May 2026 Conservative 50.5%vs Reform 16.3% | Conservative share +14.5pp | 51.3% |
| Ruislip Manor | Conservative 39.9%vs Labour 32.6% | May 2026 Conservative 51.6%vs Reform 22.2% | Conservative share +11.7pp | 53.2% |
| South Ruislip | Conservative 36.2%vs Labour 34.4% | May 2026 Conservative 54.4%vs Reform 19.0% | Conservative share +18.1pp | 45.4% |
| Uxbridge | Labour 39.9%vs Conservative 30.7% | May 2026 Conservative 37.1%vs Labour 22.4% | Labour→Conservative +12.0pp | 42.1% |
| Yiewsley | Labour 44.1%vs Conservative 26.0% | May 2026 Reform 28.5%vs Labour 26.2% | Labour→Reform +15.4pp | 33.1% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Uxbridge and South Ruislip at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Uxbridge and South Ruislip at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | John Randall | 23.4% | 48.3% | 20.0% | 11,216 | 63.3% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Boris Johnson | 26.4% | 50.2% | 4.9% | 10,695 | 63.4%+0.1 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Boris Johnson | 40.0% | 50.8% | 3.9% | 5,034 | 66.8%+3.4 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Boris Johnson 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 37.0% | 52.6% | 6.6% | 7,939 | 67.7%+0.9 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Danny Beales | 36.2% | 34.9% | 3.8% | 587 | 61.4%-6.3 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Uxbridge and South Ruislip
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Uxbridge and South Ruislip. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Age 65+16.4 / 15.8vs 22.7
- ↑Graduate38.7 / 41.1vs 33.7
- ↑Private rent24.2 / 27.4vs 20.2
- ↓Age 65+16.4 / 17.6vs 22.7
- ↑Graduate38.7 / 38.3vs 33.7
- ↑Under 3535.5 / 32.8vs 30.2
- ↑Leave57.2 / 63.4vs 53.2
- ↑Private rent24.2 / 22.3vs 20.2
- ↑Under 3535.5 / 34.6vs 30.2
- ↑Private rent24.2 / 24.2vs 20.2
- ↓Age 65+16.4 / 19.6vs 22.7
- ↑Graduate38.7 / 39.6vs 33.7
- ↓Age 65+16.4 / 19.1vs 22.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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