Watford
East of England · Borough constituency
About the Watford constituency
Watford is a borough constituency in the East of England. The sitting MP is Matt Turmaine (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 35.3% to 24.7% for the Conservatives, a majority of 4,723 votes on a 60.8% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 25.2% and Reform UK on 22.6%, a margin of 2.7 points.
Who lives in Watford? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Watford vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Watford
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Watford within Watford and Hertsmere
Watford crosses council boundaries: Watford (92%), Hertsmere (8%). The figures below are from the 7 May 2026 council elections where held, otherwise the most recent available ward result. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Watford | 92% | View projection › |
| Hertsmere | 8% | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bushey North | Conservative 30.9%vs Labour 28.9% | 2023 Lib Dem 62.6%vs Conservative 24.8% | - | 32.9% |
| Callowland | Labour 41.8%vs Conservative 17.7% | May 2026 Lib Dem 50.2%vs Green 16.7% | Labour→Lib Dem +31.6pp | 33.7% |
| Central | Labour 37.9%vs Conservative 21.4% | May 2026 Lib Dem 47.9%vs Green 19.6% | Labour→Lib Dem +28.5pp | 31.6% |
| Holywell | Labour 46.6%vs Conservative 18.5% | May 2026 Lib Dem 29.3%vs Labour 26.1% | Labour→Lib Dem +19.3pp | 33.1% |
| Leggatts | Labour 42.1%vs Conservative 22.2% | May 2026 Lib Dem 36.3%vs Reform 22.7% | Labour→Lib Dem +24.6pp | 35.4% |
| Meriden | Labour 33.2%vs Conservative 24.0% | May 2026 Lib Dem 41.3%vs Reform 31.3% | Labour→Lib Dem +25.4pp | 33.9% |
| Nascot | Conservative 29.3%vs Labour 29.3% | May 2026 Lib Dem 49.1%vs Reform 16.3% | Conservative→Lib Dem +21.6pp | 40.3% |
| Oxhey | Labour 30.0%vs Conservative 26.2% | May 2026 Lib Dem 56.1%vs Reform 17.0% | Labour→Lib Dem +28.6pp | 42.4% |
| Park | Conservative 32.2%vs Labour 28.1% | May 2026 Lib Dem 53.4%vs Reform 14.9% | Conservative→Lib Dem +26.7pp | 43.1% |
| Stanborough | Labour 29.9%vs Conservative 27.6% | May 2026 Lib Dem 43.6%vs Reform 27.8% | Labour→Lib Dem +24.0pp | 38.1% |
| Tudor | Labour 32.5%vs Conservative 26.4% | May 2026 Lib Dem 45.8%vs Reform 24.8% | Labour→Lib Dem +25.9pp | 39.7% |
| Vicarage | Labour 46.6%vs Conservative 18.1% | May 2026 Lib Dem 38.5%vs Labour 28.0% | Labour→Lib Dem +21.9pp | 38.3% |
| Woodside | Labour 33.7%vs Conservative 24.4% | May 2026 Lib Dem 43.9%vs Reform 31.7% | Labour→Lib Dem +26.7pp | 37.1% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Watford at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Watford at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con gain from Lab | Richard Harrington | 26.7% | 34.9% | 32.4% | 1,425 | 68.3% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Richard Harrington | 26.0% | 43.5% | 18.1% | 9,794 | 67.2%-1.1 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Richard Harrington | 42.0% | 45.6% | 9.1% | 2,092 | 67.8%+0.6 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Dean Russell 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 39.3% | 42.0% | 17.7% | 1,300 | 68.4%+0.6 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Matt Turmaine | 35.3% | 24.7% | 17.0% | 4,723 | 60.8%-7.6 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Watford
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Watford. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Employed65.2 / 62.8vs 57.3
- ↓Age 65+15.8 / 17.6vs 22.7
- ↑Graduate41.1 / 38.3vs 33.7
- ↓Age 65+15.8 / 16.4vs 22.7
- ↑Graduate41.1 / 38.7vs 33.7
- ↑Private rent27.4 / 24.2vs 20.2
- ↑Private rent27.4 / 27.0vs 20.2
- ↓Age 65+15.8 / 14.6vs 22.7
- ↑Graduate41.1 / 40.0vs 33.7
- ↑Graduate41.1 / 42.1vs 33.7
- ↑Employed65.2 / 63.2vs 57.3
- ↑Private rent27.4 / 24.6vs 20.2
- ↑Employed65.2 / 65.8vs 57.3
- ↓Age 65+15.8 / 13.5vs 22.7
- ↑Graduate41.1 / 38.6vs 33.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.