Constituency profile

Milton Keynes Central

South East · Borough constituency · Milton Keynes borough

Emily Darlington MP
Sitting MP

Emily Darlington

Labour

First elected July 2024

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
South East
Borough constituency, Milton Keynes council
Last 5 GE winners
CCCCL
Conservative 4/5, Labour 1/5
EU referendum 2016
51.4% Leave
UK average 51.9%; -0.5pp below mean
Current outlook
Labour +11.0pp
vs Reform UK 24.1%
SouthernBrexit-marginalDiverse

About the Milton Keynes Central constituency

Milton Keynes Central is a borough constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Emily Darlington (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 42.3% to 27.1% for the Conservatives, a majority of 7,291 votes on a 58.9% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 35.1% and Reform UK on 24.1%, a margin of 11.0 points.

Who lives in Milton Keynes Central? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
51.4%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
38.6%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
15.1%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
46.4%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
45.4%
UK average ~36%
Median age
36.4
UK median ~40
Age 65+
13.5%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
33.9%
UK average ~28%

How did Milton Keynes Central vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab gain from Con · majority 7,291 votes (15.2pp) · turnout 58.9%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Milton Keynes Central

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Milton Keynes Central within Milton Keynes

Milton Keynes Central sits entirely within Milton Keynes Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seatProjection
Milton Keynes
72 LSOAs
100%View projection ›

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
BroughtonLabour 34.1%vs Conservative 29.2%May 2026 Lib Dem 43.3%vs Reform 20.0%now part of Broughton Moulsoe
Labour→Lib Dem
+26.1pp
-
Campbell Park & Old WoughtonLabour 36.9%vs Conservative 29.9%2024 Lib Dem 37.0%vs Conservative 32.4%-34.5%
Central Milton KeynesLabour 49.5%vs Conservative 21.5%May 2026 Labour 34.1%vs Reform 20.8%
Labour share
-15.3pp
31.4%
Danesborough & WaltonLabour 39.8%vs Conservative 33.7%2024 Conservative 47.3%vs Labour 36.2%-33.0%
Loughton & ShenleyLabour 50.4%vs Conservative 27.7%2024 Labour 44.9%vs Conservative 37.4%-32.6%
MonkstonLabour 37.9%vs Conservative 23.4%2024 Lib Dem 44.1%vs Labour 24.6%-27.6%
Shenley Brook EndLabour 36.7%vs Conservative 30.0%2024 Lib Dem 43.3%vs Conservative 31.8%-33.8%
Woughton & FishermeadLabour 52.6%vs Conservative 19.0%May 2026 Labour 37.7%vs Reform 24.8%
Labour share
-14.9pp
27.4%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Milton Keynes Central at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Milton Keynes Central at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010predecessorCon gain from LabIain Stewart Milton Keynes South MP32.2%41.6%17.7%3.7% UKIP1.4%3.3%5,20163.9%
2015predecessorCon holdIain Stewart Milton Keynes South MP32.1%46.8%3.9%13.2% UKIP3.3%0.6%8,67265.8%+1.9
2017predecessorCon holdIain Stewart Milton Keynes South MP44.9%47.5%2.9%2.8% UKIP1.8%-1,66569.8%+4.0
2019notionalConservative winnerIain Stewart Milton Keynes South MP, pre-review boundary38.1%47.5%10.4%-2.5%1.5%4,95268.6%
2024Lab gain from ConEmily Darlington42.3%27.1%10.3%13.1% Ref6.8%0.4%7,29158.9%-9.7

Milton Keynes Central was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Milton Keynes South (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.

Constituencies most like Milton Keynes Central

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Milton Keynes Central. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.