Bristol East
South West · Borough constituency · Bristol, City of borough
About the Bristol East constituency
Bristol East is a borough constituency in the South West. The sitting MP is Kerry McCarthy (Labour), first elected in May 2005. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 45.0% to 30.7% for the Greens, a majority of 6,606 votes on a 60.7% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Greens on 33.9% and Labour on 32.8%, a margin of 1.1 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Bristol East? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Bristol East vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Bristol East
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Bristol East within Bristol, City of
Bristol East sits entirely within Bristol, City of Council. Bristol, City of was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Bristol, City of | 100% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brislington East | Labour 48.1%vs Green 24.8% | 2024 Labour 49.3%vs Green 24.7% | - | 28.7% |
| Brislington West | Labour 46.8%vs Green 25.7% | 2024 Lib Dem 48.6%vs Labour 30.0% | - | 39.1% |
| Easton | Labour 42.4%vs Green 41.2% | 2024 Green 66.8%vs Labour 25.1% | - | 37.1% |
| Knowle | Labour 41.1%vs Green 32.9% | 2024 Green 38.5%vs Others 21.0% | - | 41.0% |
| Lawrence Hill | Labour 46.0%vs Green 36.0% | 2024 Green 56.0%vs Labour 37.6% | - | 29.1% |
| St George Central | Labour 47.0%vs Green 32.0% | 2024 Green 51.6%vs Labour 36.6% | - | 34.3% |
| St George Troopers Hill | Labour 49.8%vs Green 23.5% | 2024 Labour 55.2%vs Green 25.1% | - | 31.5% |
| St George West | Labour 47.0%vs Green 36.7% | 2024 Green 60.9%vs Labour 28.6% | - | 42.6% |
| Stockwood | Labour 40.0%vs Conservative 31.6% | 2024 Conservative 57.4%vs Labour 27.4% | - | 28.0% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Bristol East at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Bristol East at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Kerry McCarthy | 36.6% | 28.3% | 24.4% | 3,722 | 64.8% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | Kerry McCarthy | 39.3% | 30.7% | 5.8% | 3,980 | 64.9%+0.1 |
| 2017 | Lab hold | Kerry McCarthy | 60.7% | 34.4% | 2.7% | 13,394 | 70.1%+5.2 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Kerry McCarthy 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 58.4% | 23.3% | 6.9% | 19,393 | 72.8%+2.7 |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Kerry McCarthy | 45.0% | 14.0% | 5.9% | 6,606 | 60.7%-12.1 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Bristol East
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Bristol East. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Under 3537.5 / 35.4vs 30.2
- ↓Leave46.8 / 48.6vs 53.2
- ↓Age 65+15.3 / 18.8vs 22.7
- ↑Under 3537.5 / 35.9vs 30.2
- ↓Age 65+15.3 / 17.8vs 22.7
- ↓Owner-occupied55.6 / 57.3vs 61.9
- ↓Owner-occupied55.6 / 55.3vs 61.9
- ↑Under 3537.5 / 35.6vs 30.2
- ↓Age 65+15.3 / 18.5vs 22.7
- ↑Under 3537.5 / 38.0vs 30.2
- ↑Employed64.1 / 64.4vs 57.3
- ↓Leave46.8 / 47.1vs 53.2
- ↓Leave46.8 / 46.8vs 53.2
- ↓Age 65+15.3 / 18.5vs 22.7
- ↑Employed64.1 / 60.7vs 57.3
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.