Bristol South
South West · Borough constituency · Bristol, City of borough
About the Bristol South constituency
Bristol South is a borough constituency in the South West. The sitting MP is Karin Smyth (Labour), first elected in May 2015. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 42.7% to 25.0% for the Greens, a majority of 7,666 votes on a 57.5% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 32.1% and the Greens on 31.5%, a margin of 0.6 points.
Who lives in Bristol South? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Bristol South vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Bristol South
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Bristol South within Bristol, City of
Bristol South sits entirely within Bristol, City of Council. Bristol, City of was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Bristol, City of | 100% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bedminster | Labour 46.5%vs Green 27.8% | 2024 Green 47.6%vs Labour 43.1% | - | 43.1% |
| Bishopsworth | Labour 40.5%vs Conservative 19.3% | 2024 Labour 37.5%vs Conservative 37.4% | - | 28.5% |
| Filwood | Labour 46.8%vs Green 21.5% | 2024 Labour 52.1%vs Green 31.8% | - | 21.2% |
| Hartcliffe and Withywood | Labour 44.0%vs Reform 19.3% | 2024 Labour 52.3%vs Conservative 24.3% | - | 14.0% |
| Hengrove and Whitchurch Park | Labour 35.2%vs Green 17.0% | 2024 Lib Dem 58.5%vs Labour 18.1% | - | 25.6% |
| Southville | Labour 43.7%vs Green 34.1% | 2024 Green 61.3%vs Labour 31.6% | - | 40.3% |
| Windmill Hill | Labour 43.2%vs Green 35.2% | 2024 Green 64.0%vs Labour 28.8% | - | 44.0% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Bristol South at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Bristol South at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Dawn Primarolo | 38.4% | 22.9% | 28.7% | 4,734 | 61.6% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | Karin Smyth | 38.4% | 24.3% | 8.7% | 7,128 | 62.4%+0.8 |
| 2017 | Lab hold | Karin Smyth | 60.1% | 30.7% | 3.3% | 15,987 | 65.5%+3.1 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Karin Smyth 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 51.6% | 32.8% | 6.2% | 9,077 | 64.6%-0.9 |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Karin Smyth | 42.7% | 11.4% | 6.3% | 7,666 | 57.5%-7.1 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Bristol South
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Bristol South. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Social rent22.7 / 21.4vs 16.8
- ↓Owner-occupied56.1 / 57.5vs 61.9
- ↓Age 65+16.8 / 18.8vs 22.7
- ↓Leave47.1 / 46.8vs 53.2
- ↓Age 65+16.8 / 18.5vs 22.7
- ↑Employed64.4 / 60.7vs 57.3
- ↑Employed64.4 / 60.3vs 57.3
- ↑Under 3538.0 / 32.6vs 30.2
- ↑Employed64.4 / 65.5vs 57.3
- ↑Social rent22.7 / 20.6vs 16.8
- ↓Age 65+16.8 / 19.0vs 22.7
- ↑Under 3538.0 / 35.4vs 30.2
- ↓Leave47.1 / 48.6vs 53.2
- ↓Age 65+16.8 / 18.8vs 22.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.