Kingston upon Hull East
Yorkshire and The Humber · Borough constituency · Kingston upon Hull, City of borough
About the Kingston upon Hull East constituency
Kingston upon Hull East is a borough constituency in Yorkshire and The Humber. The sitting MP is Karl Turner (Independent), first elected in May 2010. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 43.8% to 30.6% for Reform UK, a majority of 3,920 votes on a 42.2% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 40.8% and Labour on 28.2%, a margin of 12.6 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Kingston upon Hull East? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Kingston upon Hull East vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Kingston upon Hull East
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Kingston upon Hull East within Kingston upon Hull, City of
Kingston upon Hull East sits entirely within Kingston upon Hull, City of Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Kingston upon Hull, City of | 100% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drypool | Labour 39.6%vs Reform 32.2% | May 2026 Lib Dem 45.7%vs Reform 33.0% | Labour→Lib Dem +30.8pp | - |
| Holderness | Labour 43.0%vs Reform 27.8% | May 2026 Lib Dem 45.5%vs Reform 36.0% | Labour→Lib Dem +33.1pp | - |
| Ings | Labour 48.9%vs Reform 29.2% | 2024 Labour 53.9%vs Lib Dem 35.8% | - | - |
| Longhill & Bilton Grange | Labour 41.2%vs Reform 33.9% | May 2026 Reform 49.6%vs Labour 20.5% | Labour→Reform +18.2pp | - |
| Marfleet | Labour 43.9%vs Reform 33.9% | May 2026 Reform 52.3%vs Labour 18.7% | Labour→Reform +21.8pp | - |
| North Carr | Labour 43.1%vs Reform 32.0% | May 2026 Reform 51.7%vs Labour 18.8% | Labour→Reform +22.0pp | - |
| Southcoates | Labour 48.6%vs Reform 27.0% | May 2026 Reform 43.1%vs Labour 34.5% | Labour→Reform +15.1pp | - |
| Sutton | Labour 42.3%vs Reform 29.9% | May 2026 Reform 39.2%vs Lib Dem 37.9% | Labour→Reform +22.2pp | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Kingston upon Hull East at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Kingston upon Hull East at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Karl Turner | 47.9% | 16.6% | 22.8% | 8,597 | 50.6% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | Karl Turner | 51.7% | 15.9% | 6.5% | 10,319 | 53.5%+2.9 |
| 2017 | Lab hold | Karl Turner | 58.3% | 29.9% | 3.4% | 10,396 | 55.5%+2.0 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Karl Turner 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 41.6% | 34.3% | 5.0% | 2,495 | 46.8%-8.7 |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Karl Turner | 43.8% | 9.1% | 10.9% | 3,920 | 42.2%-4.6 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Kingston upon Hull East
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Kingston upon Hull East. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave72.8 / 69.8vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate18.7 / 20.4vs 33.7
- ↑No quals26.8 / 27.2vs 18.0
- ↑Leave72.8 / 69.6vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate18.7 / 24.8vs 33.7
- ↑Social rent30.0 / 23.4vs 16.8
- ↓Graduate18.7 / 21.2vs 33.7
- ↑Leave72.8 / 66.0vs 53.2
- ↑No quals26.8 / 26.2vs 18.0
- ↑Leave72.8 / 69.3vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate18.7 / 21.4vs 33.7
- ↑No quals26.8 / 26.1vs 18.0
- ↑Leave72.8 / 68.3vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate18.7 / 21.5vs 33.7
- ↑Social rent30.0 / 26.2vs 16.8
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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