Constituency profile

Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley

Yorkshire and The Humber · County constituency · Wakefield borough

Yvette Cooper MP
Sitting MP

Yvette Cooper

Labour

First elected May 1997Cabinet: Secretary of State for Health and Social Care

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
Yorkshire and The Humber
County constituency, Wakefield council
Last 5 GE winners
LLLLL
Labour 5/5
EU referendum 2016
69.3% Leave
UK average 51.9%; +17.4pp above mean
Current outlook
Reform UK +5.4pp
Vulnerability score 9/10 (Labour projected to lose)
NorthernStrong Leave areaWorking-class profile

About the Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley constituency

Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley is a county constituency in Yorkshire and The Humber. The sitting MP is Yvette Cooper (Labour), first elected in May 1997. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 47.5% to 29.1% for Reform UK, a majority of 6,630 votes on a 48.2% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 38.6% and Labour on 33.1%, a margin of 5.4 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.

Who lives in Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
69.3%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
21.4%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
26.1%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
62.8%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
36.4%
UK average ~36%
Median age
40.6
UK median ~40
Age 65+
22.1%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
30.4%
UK average ~28%

How did Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab hold · majority 6,630 votes (18.4pp) · turnout 48.2%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley within Wakefield

Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley sits entirely within Wakefield Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seatProjection
Wakefield
61 LSOAs
100%View projection ›

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
Airedale and Ferry FrystonLabour 46.8%vs Reform 31.6%May 2026 Reform 56.3%vs Labour 30.1%
Labour→Reform
+20.7pp
-
Altofts and WhitwoodLabour 47.1%vs Reform 29.1%May 2026 Reform 52.2%vs Labour 28.4%
Labour→Reform
+20.9pp
-
Castleford Central and GlasshoughtonLabour 49.9%vs Reform 28.5%May 2026 Reform 49.7%vs Labour 31.4%
Labour→Reform
+19.9pp
-
KnottingleyLabour 45.2%vs Reform 30.5%May 2026 Reform 42.3%vs Lib Dem 40.8%now part of Knottingley Ferrybridge
Labour→Reform
+23.9pp
-
Pontefract NorthLabour 49.2%vs Reform 29.6%May 2026 Reform 48.3%vs Labour 31.0%
Labour→Reform
+18.4pp
32.0%
Pontefract SouthLabour 45.7%vs Reform 25.9%May 2026 Reform 43.6%vs Labour 32.7%
Labour→Reform
+15.4pp
-

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010predecessorLab holdYvette Cooper Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford MP48.2%24.5%16.4%--10.9%10,97956.2%
2015predecessorLab holdYvette Cooper Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford MP54.9%20.8%2.9%21.3% UKIP--15,42855.6%-0.6
2017predecessorLab holdYvette Cooper Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford MP59.5%30.0%1.4%6.2% UKIP-2.9%14,49960.3%+4.7
2019notionalLabour winnerYvette Cooper Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford MP, pre-review boundary38.2%35.6%6.8%--19.4%1,08256.7%
2024Lab holdYvette Cooper47.5%15.0%3.4%29.1% Ref4.6%0.4%6,63048.2%-8.5

Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.

Constituencies most like Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

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