Pontypridd
Wales · County constituency · Rhondda Cynon Taf borough
About the Pontypridd constituency
Pontypridd is a county constituency in Wales. The sitting MP is Alex Davies-Jones (Labour), first elected in December 2019. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 41.2% to 19.9% for Reform UK, a majority of 8,402 votes on a 51.8% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 25.9% and Plaid Cymru on 24.0%, a margin of 1.9 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Pontypridd? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Pontypridd vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Pontypridd
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
How Pontypridd voted at the Senedd election (7 May 2026)
Pontypridd sits almost entirely within the Senedd constituency of Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr. Senedd elections use a closed-list proportional system; each Senedd seat returns six members.
| Senedd constituency | Share of Pontypridd | Winner | Runner-up | Seats (6 per constituency) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pontypridd Cynon Merthyr | 98% | Plaid Cymru 39.5% | Reform UK 30.6% | 3 Plaid Cymru, 2 Reform UK, 1 Labour |
| Caerdydd Penarth | 1% | Plaid Cymru 41.0% | Reform UK 17.6% | 3 Plaid Cymru, 1 Reform UK, 1 Green, 1 Labour |
Senedd 2026 results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new 16-seat Senedd boundary.
Pontypridd within Rhondda Cynon Taf
Pontypridd sits entirely within Rhondda Cynon Taf Council. Rhondda Cynon Taf was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Rhondda Cynon Taf | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Jul 2025 | Pontypridd Town | PC HOLD | PC 52% Ref 24% Lab 19% |
| 21 Nov 2022 | Abercynon | Lab HOLD | — |
| 20 Oct 2022 | Ynysybwl | PC HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abercynon | Labour 44.2%vs Reform 19.7% | 2022 Labour 75.3%vs Plaid Cymru 10.0% | - | - |
| Beddau and Tyn-y-nant | Labour 45.5%vs Reform 20.4% | 2022 Labour 72.3%vs Conservative 18.0% | - | - |
| Brynna and Llanharan | Labour 39.6%vs Reform 16.8% | 2022 Labour 54.0%vs Independent 20.9% | - | - |
| Church Village | Labour 40.8%vs Reform 20.2% | 2022 Labour 48.6%vs Plaid Cymru 27.2% | - | - |
| Cilfynydd | Labour 37.7%vs Plaid Cymru 19.7% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 41.2%vs Labour 35.6% | - | - |
| Glyn-coch | Labour 39.2%vs Reform 23.5% | 2022 Labour 67.2%vs Others 16.4% | - | - |
| Graig and Pontypridd West | Labour 43.1%vs Reform 20.9% | 2022 Labour 60.0%vs Plaid Cymru 26.2% | - | - |
| Hawthorn and Lower Rhydfelen | Labour 37.4%vs Reform 20.2% | 2022 Independent 63.2%vs Labour 36.8% | - | - |
| Llanharry | Labour 41.8%vs Reform 21.5% | 2022 Labour 46.1%vs Independent 38.3% | - | - |
| Llantrisant and Talbot Green | Labour 38.6%vs Reform 19.5% | 2022 Labour 43.4%vs Independent 31.1% | - | - |
| Llantwit Fardre | Labour 35.3%vs Reform 21.0% | 2022 Conservative 49.1%vs Labour 34.6% | - | - |
| Mountain Ash | Labour 46.3%vs Plaid Cymru 16.5% | 2022 Labour 68.6%vs Plaid Cymru 24.0% | - | - |
| Penrhiw-ceibr | Labour 43.9%vs Reform 19.6% | 2022 Labour 88.1%vs Plaid Cymru 11.9% | - | - |
| Pontyclun West | Labour 31.0%vs Plaid Cymru 17.5% | 2022 Independent 58.2%vs Labour 23.9% | - | - |
| Pontypridd Town | Labour 38.3%vs Plaid Cymru 24.1% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 53.9%vs Labour 36.2% | - | - |
| Rhydfelen Central | Labour 43.2%vs Reform 20.3% | 2022 Labour 76.4%vs Plaid Cymru 23.6% | - | - |
| Ton-teg | Labour 38.4%vs Reform 19.5% | 2022 Labour 39.1%vs Independent 38.6% | - | - |
| Trallwng | Labour 41.8%vs Reform 21.2% | 2022 Independent 51.2%vs Labour 37.1% | - | - |
| Treforest | Labour 47.4%vs Reform 23.0% | 2022 Labour 67.4%vs Plaid Cymru 15.8% | - | - |
| Upper Rhydfelen and Glyn-taf | Labour 37.9%vs Reform 24.7% | 2022 Labour 74.7%vs Independent 25.3% | - | - |
| Ynysybwl | Labour 35.1%vs Plaid Cymru 24.8% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 53.8%vs Labour 34.0% | - | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Pontypridd at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Pontypridd at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Owen Smith | 38.8% | 16.2% | 31.2% | 2,785 | 63.0% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | Owen Smith | 41.1% | 17.3% | 12.9% | 8,985 | 64.3%+1.3 |
| 2017 | Lab hold | Owen Smith | 55.4% | 26.7% | 4.9% | 11,448 | 65.9%+1.6 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Alex Davies-Jones 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 46.6% | 27.3% | 1.4% | 8,798 | 61.8%-4.1 |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Alex Davies-Jones | 41.2% | 9.6% | 4.1% | 8,402 | 51.8%-10.0 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Pontypridd
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Pontypridd. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied69.2 / 72.8vs 61.9
- ↓Leave46.5 / 50.3vs 53.2
- ↑Owner-occupied69.2 / 67.4vs 61.9
- ↓Graduate29.3 / 30.4vs 33.7
- ↓Leave46.5 / 50.2vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate29.3 / 27.2vs 33.7
- ↑Owner-occupied69.2 / 66.3vs 61.9
- ↑Owner-occupied69.2 / 68.9vs 61.9
- ↓Graduate29.3 / 29.7vs 33.7
- ↓Graduate29.3 / 27.2vs 33.7
- ↓Leave46.5 / 49.9vs 53.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.