Bridgend
Wales · County constituency · Bridgend borough
About the Bridgend constituency
Bridgend is a county constituency in Wales. The sitting MP is Chris Elmore (Labour), first elected in May 2016. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 39.9% to 19.1% for Reform UK, a majority of 8,595 votes on a 56.5% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 23.8% and Reform UK on 23.8%, a margin of 0.0 points.
Who lives in Bridgend? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Bridgend vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Bridgend
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
How Bridgend voted at the Senedd election (7 May 2026)
Bridgend sits almost entirely within the Senedd constituency of Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg. Senedd elections use a closed-list proportional system; each Senedd seat returns six members.
| Senedd constituency | Share of Bridgend | Winner | Runner-up | Seats (6 per constituency) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pen-y-bont Bro Morgannwg | 97% | Plaid Cymru 33.5% | Reform UK 30.1% | 2 Plaid Cymru, 2 Reform UK, 1 Conservative, 1 Labour |
| Afan Ogwr Rhondda | 2% | Plaid Cymru 36.9% | Reform UK 33.6% | 3 Plaid Cymru, 2 Reform UK, 1 Labour |
Senedd 2026 results from official declarations. Overlap percentages are area-based using the post-2024 Westminster boundary against the new 16-seat Senedd boundary.
Bridgend within Bridgend
Bridgend sits entirely within Bridgend Council. Bridgend was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Bridgend | 100% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 May 2025 | Pyle, Kenfig Hill and Cefn Cribwr | Ref GAIN from Lab | Ref 35% Lab 34% Other 18% |
| 8 Mar 2024 | Aberkenfig | Lab GAIN from PC | — |
| 24 Aug 2022 | Bridgend Central | Ind GAIN from Lab | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberkenfig | Labour 36.5%vs Plaid Cymru 19.1% | 2022 Plaid Cymru 53.6%vs Labour 28.9% | - | - |
| Brackla East Central | Labour 39.5%vs Reform 22.1% | 2022 Labour 36.4%vs Conservative 30.3% | - | - |
| Brackla East and Coychurch Lower | Labour 38.9%vs Conservative 20.4% | 2022 Labour 39.9%vs Conservative 37.2% | - | - |
| Brackla West | Labour 38.0%vs Reform 23.0% | 2022 Labour 38.6%vs Independent 32.0% | - | - |
| Brackla West Central | Labour 40.4%vs Reform 19.6% | 2022 Labour 47.1%vs Conservative 32.7% | - | - |
| Bridgend Central | Labour 41.3%vs Reform 21.2% | 2022 Independent 44.6%vs Labour 42.7% | - | - |
| Bryntirion, Laleston and Merthyr Mawr | Labour 41.7%vs Reform 18.8% | 2022 Labour 36.0%vs Independent 31.2% | - | - |
| Cefn-glas | Labour 42.0%vs Reform 19.5% | 2022 Labour 53.0%vs Independent 32.0% | - | - |
| Coity Higher | Labour 38.4%vs Reform 18.0% | 2022 Independent 47.1%vs Labour 36.5% | - | - |
| Newton | Labour 35.7%vs Conservative 25.4% | 2022 Conservative 43.7%vs Labour 31.1% | - | - |
| Nottage | Labour 33.5%vs Reform 21.4% | 2022 Independent 55.5%vs Conservative 24.6% | - | - |
| Oldcastle | Labour 40.2%vs Reform 19.6% | 2022 Independent 46.7%vs Labour 36.0% | - | - |
| Pen-y-fai | Labour 54.6%vs Conservative 17.1% | 2022 Labour 50.4%vs Conservative 21.2% | - | - |
| Pencoed and Penprysg | Labour 37.3%vs Conservative 18.3% | 2022 Labour 42.2%vs Independent 31.1% | - | - |
| Porthcawl East Central | Labour 40.1%vs Reform 21.1% | 2022 Labour 43.0%vs Independent 38.8% | - | - |
| Porthcawl West Central | Labour 36.4%vs Reform 21.3% | 2022 Independent 62.2%vs Labour 23.8% | - | - |
| Pyle, Kenfig Hill and Cefn Cribwr | Labour 49.2%vs Reform 21.3% | 2022 Labour 73.2%vs Conservative 14.8% | - | - |
| Rest Bay | Labour 32.9%vs Conservative 25.1% | 2022 Independent 54.0%vs Conservative 46.0% | - | - |
| St Bride's Minor and Ynysawdre | Labour 42.2%vs Reform 20.8% | 2022 Independent 47.7%vs Labour 43.2% | - | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Bridgend at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Bridgend at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Lab hold | Madeleine Moon | 36.3% | 30.4% | 22.6% | 2,263 | 65.3% |
| 2015 | Lab hold | Madeleine Moon | 37.1% | 32.2% | 4.2% | 1,927 | 65.8%+0.5 |
| 2017 | Lab hold | Madeleine Moon | 50.7% | 39.8% | 2.1% | 4,700 | 69.6%+3.8 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Jamie Wallis 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 38.5% | 44.0% | 5.3% | 2,553 | 66.0%-3.6 |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Chris Elmore | 39.9% | 16.3% | 3.5% | 8,595 | 56.5%-9.5 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Bridgend
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Bridgend. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied72.8 / 70.5vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent14.3 / 16.0vs 20.2
- ↓Social rent12.7 / 13.2vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied72.8 / 74.4vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent14.3 / 11.8vs 20.2
- ↓Social rent12.7 / 12.4vs 16.8
- ↑Owner-occupied72.8 / 71.1vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent12.7 / 12.1vs 16.8
- ↓Private rent14.3 / 15.8vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied72.8 / 71.0vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent12.7 / 12.1vs 16.8
- ↓Private rent14.3 / 16.1vs 20.2
- ↑Owner-occupied72.8 / 73.6vs 61.9
- ↓Private rent14.3 / 13.4vs 20.2
- ↓Social rent12.7 / 11.6vs 16.8
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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