Lowestoft
East of England · County constituency · East Suffolk borough
About the Lowestoft constituency
Lowestoft is a county constituency in the East of England. The sitting MP is Jess Asato (Labour), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 34.6% to 29.8% for the Conservatives, a majority of 2,016 votes on a 56.3% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Reform UK on 39.9% and Labour on 21.4%, a margin of 18.4 points - a projected change of hands from Labour.
Who lives in Lowestoft? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Lowestoft vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Lowestoft
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Lowestoft within East Suffolk
Lowestoft sits entirely within East Suffolk Council. East Suffolk was not itself in the 2026 election cycle, but the Suffolk County Council election was held on Thursday 7 May 2026; the county-division results covering this seat are shown below. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| East Suffolk | 100% |
Suffolk County Council election, Thursday 7 May 2026
The county council is a separate tier of local government from the district council and from Westminster. These are the results for the county divisions covering this seat; vote shares are computed from the declared per-candidate ballots.
| Division | Winner | Top 3 vote shares | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beccles & Kessingland | Grn | Grn 38% Ref 36% Con 16% | — |
| Carlton & Whitton | Ref | Ref 47% Con 23% Grn 13% | 37.0% |
| Carlton Colville | Ref | Ref 51% Con 17% Grn 16% | 34.5% |
| Gunton | Ref | Ref 45% Con 21% Lab 20% | — |
| Harbour | Ref | Ref 43% Grn 22% Lab 21% | 25.0% |
| Kirkley & Pakefield | Ref | Ref 41% Grn 31% Lab 17% | — |
| Oulton | Ref | Ref 47% Con 22% Grn 16% | — |
| Oulton Broad & Normanston | Ref | Ref 45% Con 24% Grn 14% | — |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Jul 2024 | Carlton Colville | Con HOLD | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beccles & Worlingham | Conservative 29.0%vs Labour 27.6% | 2023 Green 66.2%vs Conservative 20.4% | - | 35.9% |
| Carlton & Whitton | Labour 36.3%vs Conservative 30.6% | 2023 Conservative 46.1%vs Labour 39.5% | - | 25.0% |
| Carlton Colville | Conservative 31.8%vs Labour 29.6% | 2023 Conservative 40.6%vs Lib Dem 34.5% | - | 25.8% |
| Gunton & St Margarets | Labour 38.1%vs Conservative 29.2% | 2023 Labour 45.7%vs Conservative 40.0% | - | 28.8% |
| Harbour & Normanston | Labour 34.9%vs Conservative 28.4% | 2023 Labour 57.9%vs Conservative 27.1% | - | 17.8% |
| Kessingland | Labour 35.7%vs Conservative 28.6% | 2023 Labour 37.0%vs Conservative 33.4% | - | 30.9% |
| Kirkley & Pakefield | Labour 40.4%vs Conservative 25.7% | 2023 Labour 52.4%vs Conservative 32.1% | - | 26.4% |
| Lothingland | Labour 34.0%vs Conservative 33.8% | 2023 Conservative 47.1%vs Labour 34.5% | - | 31.5% |
| Oulton Broad | Labour 34.3%vs Conservative 33.1% | 2023 Conservative 49.0%vs Labour 34.7% | - | 26.5% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Lowestoft at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Lowestoft at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | Con gain from Lab | Peter Aldous Waveney MP | 38.7% | 40.2% | 13.3% | 769 | 65.1% |
| 2015predecessor | Con hold | Peter Aldous Waveney MP | 37.7% | 42.3% | 2.0% | 2,408 | 65.1%+0.0 |
| 2017predecessor | Con hold | Peter Aldous Waveney MP | 36.9% | 54.4% | 1.9% | 9,215 | 65.2%+0.1 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Peter Aldous Waveney MP, pre-review boundary | 28.2% | 60.9% | 5.1% | 14,850 | 61.4% |
| 2024 | Lab gain from Con | Jess Asato | 34.6% | 29.8% | 3.6% | 2,016 | 56.3%-5.1 |
Lowestoft was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Waveney (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Lowestoft
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Lowestoft. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Leave63.4 / 65.8vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate20.8 / 23.5vs 33.7
- ↑Age 65+31.0 / 31.0vs 22.7
- ↓Graduate20.8 / 22.3vs 33.7
- ↑Leave63.4 / 66.7vs 53.2
- ↑Age 65+31.0 / 28.9vs 22.7
- ↑Leave63.4 / 64.8vs 53.2
- ↑Age 65+31.0 / 31.9vs 22.7
- ↓Graduate20.8 / 24.9vs 33.7
- ↑Leave63.4 / 60.9vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate20.8 / 25.7vs 33.7
- ↓Employed49.7 / 51.2vs 57.3
- ↑Leave63.4 / 62.4vs 53.2
- ↓Graduate20.8 / 26.0vs 33.7
- ↑Age 65+31.0 / 28.1vs 22.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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