Fylde
North West · County constituency
About the Fylde constituency
Fylde is a county constituency in the North West. The sitting MP is Mr Andrew Snowden (Conservative), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the Conservatives won with 33.2% to 32.0% for Labour, a majority of 561 votes on a 62.2% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Conservatives on 32.7% and Reform UK on 27.2%, a margin of 5.6 points.
Who lives in Fylde? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Fylde vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Fylde
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Fylde within Fylde and Wyre
Fylde crosses council boundaries: Fylde (85%), Wyre (15%). None of the constituent councils were due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Fylde | 85% |
| Wyre | 15% |
Recent council by-elections
Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.
| Date | Ward | Result | Top 3 vote shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 May 2026 | Kirkham | Con GAIN from Ind | Con 61% Ref 27% Lab 7% |
| 6 Dec 2024 | Kilgrimol | Con GAIN from Ind | — |
| 18 Oct 2024 | Warton | Con GAIN from Ind | — |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ansdell & Fairhaven | Conservative 34.7%vs Labour 33.1% | 2023 Conservative 50.8%vs Independent 23.3% | - | 48.7% |
| Ashton | Labour 34.4%vs Conservative 31.4% | 2023 Conservative 38.6%vs Independent 28.9% | - | 44.4% |
| Breck | Labour 29.8%vs Conservative 27.1% | 2023 Conservative 46.4%vs Labour 40.8% | - | 34.3% |
| Carnegie | Conservative 35.8%vs Labour 32.8% | 2023 Conservative 55.4%vs Independent 17.6% | - | 35.7% |
| Freckleton Village | Conservative 34.9%vs Labour 32.6% | 2023 Conservative 49.6%vs Independent 30.9% | - | 46.5% |
| Hardhorn with High Cross | Conservative 31.7%vs Labour 30.0% | 2023 Conservative 73.7%vs Labour 18.8% | - | 37.2% |
| Heyhouses | Labour 34.4%vs Conservative 34.3% | 2023 Conservative 52.9%vs Labour 25.5% | - | 46.0% |
| Kilgrimol | Labour 33.2%vs Conservative 32.6% | 2023 Conservative 49.9%vs Independent 31.7% | - | 41.2% |
| Kilnhouse | Conservative 33.3%vs Labour 32.7% | 2023 Conservative 48.8%vs Lib Dem 35.6% | - | 45.8% |
| Kirkham | Labour 33.4%vs Conservative 30.0% | 2023 Independent 64.3%vs Conservative 26.9% | - | 30.8% |
| Lytham East | Labour 32.1%vs Conservative 29.6% | 2023 Independent 64.5%vs Conservative 25.7% | - | 44.3% |
| Lytham West | Conservative 39.7%vs Labour 27.4% | 2023 Conservative 55.2%vs Independent 27.6% | - | 54.2% |
| Medlar-with-Wesham | Labour 36.1%vs Conservative 27.6% | 2023 Independent 53.4%vs Conservative 28.6% | - | 27.4% |
| Park | Conservative 38.7%vs Labour 30.3% | 2023 Conservative 52.9%vs Independent 36.3% | - | 49.9% |
| Rural East Fylde | Conservative 35.5%vs Labour 27.7% | 2023 Conservative 39.8%vs Independent 29.9% | - | 50.7% |
| Rural North Fylde | Conservative 34.8%vs Labour 29.2% | 2023 Independent 62.6%vs Conservative 27.3% | - | 39.9% |
| Staining | Conservative 35.0%vs Labour 34.3% | 2023 Conservative 63.8%vs Labour 36.2% | - | 29.6% |
| Tithebarn | Labour 31.0%vs Conservative 29.4% | 2023 Conservative 70.1%vs Labour 29.9% | - | 33.4% |
| Warton | Labour 34.8%vs Conservative 32.0% | 2023 Conservative 46.6%vs Independent 31.7% | - | 35.0% |
| Wrea Green with Westby | Conservative 39.4%vs Labour 29.6% | 2023 Conservative 60.9%vs Green 16.3% | - | 43.4% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Fylde at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Fylde at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Con hold | Mark Menzies | 19.7% | 52.2% | 22.1% | 13,185 | 66.3% |
| 2015 | Con hold | Mark Menzies | 18.8% | 49.1% | 3.7% | 13,224 | 66.3%+0.0 |
| 2017 | Con hold | Mark Menzies | 33.4% | 58.8% | 5.0% | 11,805 | 70.5%+4.2 |
| 2019notional | Conservative winner | Mark Menzies 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 25.2% | 62.2% | 7.3% | 19,254 | 69.2%-1.3 |
| 2024 | Con hold | Andrew Snowden | 32.0% | 33.2% | 4.4% | 561 | 62.2%-7.0 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Fylde
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Fylde. Politics shown for context.
- ↑Owner-occupied72.7 / 72.8vs 61.9
- ↓Social rent7.8 / 7.2vs 16.8
- ↑Age 65+32.5 / 31.6vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied72.7 / 73.9vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+32.5 / 31.6vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3521.5 / 22.1vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+32.5 / 33.6vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3521.5 / 21.2vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied72.7 / 69.4vs 61.9
- ↑Age 65+32.5 / 31.5vs 22.7
- ↑Owner-occupied72.7 / 70.5vs 61.9
- ↓Under 3521.5 / 22.9vs 30.2
- ↑Age 65+32.5 / 34.9vs 22.7
- ↓Under 3521.5 / 20.0vs 30.2
- ↑Owner-occupied72.7 / 69.5vs 61.9
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.