Survation Holyrood MRP, May 2026
- Pollster
- Survation
- Fieldwork
- 20 April - 4 May 2026
- Sample size
- 5,025 Scottish adults aged 16+
- Method
- Mixed online and telephone, MRP
- Coverage
- All 73 Scottish Parliament constituencies and 8 regional list areas
- Source
- survation.com
Headline projection
Each party's median is calculated independently across Survation's MRP simulations, so per-party medians do not always sum to 129. Here Con's median is 13, while its simulation mean is 12.5 - the simulation means do sum to 129.
Constituency vote
Regional list vote
Largest party by constituency
SNP Lab Con LD Ref Green Other
Closest constituency races
Seats where the leading party's win probability is below 60% across simulations - genuine three-way and coin-flip races.
All 73 constituencies
| Constituency | SNP | Lab | Ref | Con | LD | Green | Other | Leader |
|---|
List seats by region
D'Hondt allocation of 7 list seats per region across 8 regions = 56 list seats. Map coloured by the party projected to win the most list seats in each region (median, with mean as tie-breaker); hover for the full breakdown. Numbers are the median across simulations - medians per party do not always sum to 7 because they are calculated independently.
SNP Lab Con LD Ref Green
Methodology
Multilevel Regression and Poststratification (MRP) modelling estimates vote share in each of the 73 constituencies and 8 regional list areas. Constituency boundaries reflect the Boundary Commission for Scotland's final recommendations, which come into force at the 7 May 2026 election. List seats are allocated using the D'Hondt method, with each party's regional list vote divided by their constituency seats already won + 1 + any list seats already taken in earlier rounds. Survation states that the 9-in-10 confidence band is plus or minus 4 points and the 2-in-3 band is plus or minus 2 points on each headline figure.