Welsh seat calculator
Westminster seats in Wales
Enter a Wales-wide vote share, or load a recent Welsh poll. Seat projections use the same demographic model as the demographic swingometer.
Loading the model…
Start from a poll
Wales vote share
Constituency map
Every Welsh constituency
| Constituency | Winner | Share | Margin | Change on 2024 |
|---|
Method
Each Welsh constituency starts from the demographic model's own projection for that seat. The difference between your entered share and the model's Wales average is applied to every seat, scaled by how strongly that seat has moved with each party in the past. Shares are floored at zero, rescaled to 100 within the seat, and the highest share wins.
The calculator opens on the Welsh polling average shown on Welsh voting intention, entered the same way as a poll. Model baseline loads the model's own Wales average instead, which reads Wales through GB-wide polling.
A poll or average that reports Others but no separate Restore Britain figure is taken to include Restore Britain within Others, so loading it sets Restore Britain to zero. Welsh Westminster polls do not report Restore Britain separately, so the calculator opens with it at zero.
The poll presets are the most recent Welsh voting intention polls.
The opening seat totals match the seat projections on Welsh voting intention. Model baseline matches the demographic swingometer.