Welsh polls: Westminster voting intention
3-poll moving average - Updated 30 September 2026
Track the latest Welsh opinion polls and Westminster voting intention for Labour, Plaid Cymru, Reform, the Conservatives and the Lib Dems. Updated with each new Welsh poll.
Welsh Westminster voting intention
Lines show a smoothed 3-poll moving average - Welsh polls are scarce, so a short window keeps the average recent. Switch to "3MA" for the plain moving average, or "Raw" to see every poll plotted directly.
As of 30 September 2026, the PollCheck 3-poll moving average shows Reform UK leading on 25.7%, ahead of Plaid Cymru on 22.0% and Labour on 19.7%. The Conservatives on 15.0% and Greens on 8.7%.
Tap a poll to project it
Tap a poll to see the full breakdown and how it compares with the previous survey from the same pollster, and seat projections from that poll.
Projected Welsh seats
Demographic model · Welsh polling average
Projections use the same demographic model as the demographic swingometer, where you can explore the full GB picture and set your own scenario.
Compare two dates
3-poll moving average at each date. The GE24 preset compares against the actual GE2024 result in Wales. The same tool for GB-wide polling is on GB polls.
Seat changes since the 2024 general election
Based on latest poll
| Party | GE2024 | Projected | Swing | Change |
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Every Welsh Westminster poll
Vote shares in per cent. The leading party in each poll is in bold.
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About this data
Who is leading in Welsh polls?
The 3-poll average at the top of this page shows the current order, built from every published Welsh Westminster voting intention poll. It covers all the main parties standing in Wales: Labour, Plaid Cymru, the Conservatives, Reform UK, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens.
What are the latest Welsh polls?
Every Welsh Westminster voting intention poll from the published pollsters is listed on this page, newest first, and the chart and averages update as each new poll is added.
How do Welsh Westminster polls differ from Senedd polls?
Welsh Westminster polls measure voting intention for UK Parliament elections using first-past-the-post. Senedd polls measure voting intention for the Welsh Parliament, which from 2026 uses a closed-list proportional representation system with 16 constituencies electing 6 members each. Voters often support different parties at each level.
How are the seat projections calculated?
The seat projection applies the demographic model used across PollCheck within Wales: each of the 32 constituencies moves from its 2024 result according to its demographic make-up and the swing in the Welsh polling average (or in a poll you select), and the party ahead in each seat is the projected winner. It is a snapshot of current polling, not a forecast.
When is the next Welsh election?
The next Senedd (Welsh Parliament) election is due in May 2030. The Senedd Cymru (Members and Elections) Act 2024 moved Senedd elections from every five years to every four, starting after the 7 May 2026 election, the first with 96 members elected by proportional representation across 16 constituencies. For Westminster, Wales elects 32 MPs at the next UK general election, which must be held by August 2029.
Polls: every published Welsh Westminster voting intention poll (YouGov for Barn Cymru, Survation, More in Common and others). 2024 result: House of Commons Library. Seat projections: PollCheck demographic model.