Latest UK Polls - Westminster Voting Intention Tracker
7-poll moving average - Updated 10 July 2026
7-poll moving average. Change since the 2024 general election.
Lines show a 7-poll moving average to smooth out individual poll noise. Toggle "Raw" to see each poll plotted directly.
Track the latest UK opinion polls and Westminster voting intention, updated daily. PollCheck's 7-poll moving average draws from every major UK pollster including YouGov, Survation, Opinium, More in Common and JL Partners.
As of 10 July 2026, the PollCheck 7-poll moving average shows Reform UK leading on 25.9%, ahead of Labour on 20.6% and Conservatives on 20.0%. The Greens on 13.4% and Liberal Democrats on 11.4%.
30-day change
Each party's 7-poll moving average over the last 90 days, with its change over the last 30 days.
Projected seats if an election were held today
First-past-the-post projection of the current 7-poll average across all 632 GB seats, using PollCheck's constituency-level demographic model. 326 seats are needed for a majority.
See current projections for latest polls and set your own scenarios.
See the projection seat by seat: browse all 632 constituency profiles.
Compare two dates
Select two dates in the 7-poll average, or use a preset, to see the change between them.
Vote share by group
Sample-weighted 7-poll moving average from pollster crosstabs. Bar widths show each party's vote share within the group.
Based on how people remember voting in 2024. Memories of a past vote are not always accurate, so this is best read as a rough guide to how support is shifting rather than a precise measurement.
Recent polls
Methodology
Standardisation. Pollsters use different age bands, which are mapped to five standard bins - 18-24, 25-34, 35-49, 50-64 and 65+ - by the standard bin each band overlaps most, using the midpoint for ambiguous ranges. Some precision is lost when a wide band (e.g. 18-34) is mapped to a narrower standard bin, so wider bands are down-weighted accordingly.
Aggregation. Each point is a trailing 7-poll moving average: a weighted average of the seven most recent polls up to and including that point. Polls are weighted by sub-sample size, so larger sub-samples - which have lower margins of error - count for more. Each poll is treated separately regardless of date; two polls on the same day both enter the window.
Age crosstabs come from sub-samples of larger polls rather than primary samples, so they are more volatile than headline voting intention - particularly for the youngest and oldest groups, where sub-samples are smallest. Read them as indicative trends rather than precise measurements.
Regions are taken directly from each pollster's reported breakdown across the 11 standard GB regions, with no remapping. Each point is a trailing 7-poll moving average, weighted by regional sub-sample size, with each poll counted separately regardless of date.
Regional sub-samples are smaller than the GB-wide samples behind the headline figures - especially Wales, the North East and Scotland - so estimates carry wider error bands than the national 7-poll average. Read these as indicative trends rather than precise measurements.
Covers respondents who identify as male or female. Each point is a trailing 7-poll moving average, weighted by sub-sample size, with each poll counted separately regardless of date.
Gender crosstabs come from sub-samples of larger polls rather than primary samples, so they are more volatile than headline voting intention. Read these as indicative trends rather than precise measurements.
The composition view shows where each party's current voters say they voted in 2024, as a base-weighted 7-poll moving average of pollster recall crosstabs. The retention view shows the share of each party's 2024 voters who would still vote for it now. Composition bars are renormalised across the 2024-vote origins each pollster reports.
Pollsters vary in how finely they break down the 2024 vote - some group smaller parties - and vote recall relies on respondents remembering their 2024 vote, so these are more volatile than headline voting intention. Read them as indicative rather than precise.
Pollster house effects
How far each pollster's average sits from the all-pollster consensus, by party, over the last 12 months. The consensus is the mean of each pollster's average, weighting every pollster equally. Positive means the pollster shows that party above the consensus. Pollsters with at least five polls in the window are included.
Every poll since the 2024 election
Tap a poll to see the full breakdown and how it compares with the previous survey from the same pollster.
| Loading polls... |
- Reform UK Polls - Trends & Demographics
- Labour Polls - Trends & Demographics
- Conservative Polls - Trends & Demographics
- Green Party Polls - Trends & Demographics
- Liberal Democrat Polls - Trends & Demographics
- Restore Britain Polls - Voting Intention & Makerfield Result
- Latest Polls by Pollster - YouGov, Survation, Opinium, Ipsos, More in Common
- All 632 GB Constituencies - MP, GE2024 Result & Current Projection
- Seat Calculator - Constituency Seat Projections
- Poll-based Seat Calculator
- 2026 Local Election Projections - 136 Councils
- Council Control Map
- Scottish Westminster Polls
- Welsh Polls
- Pollster Track Records
- Leader Approval Ratings
What are the latest UK polls?
The latest UK polls are shown in the live voting intention table and chart at the top of this page, which update daily as new polls are published. PollCheck aggregates every GB Westminster poll into a 7-poll moving average drawn from YouGov, Opinium, Survation, More in Common, Find Out Now and other major UK pollsters, so the figures above always reflect the most recent polling.
Who is leading in the UK polls?
The current leader is shown at the top of the 7-poll moving average table and chart on this page, which update daily as new polls are released. Rather than relying on a single poll, PollCheck averages the seven most recent GB Westminster polls so the leader reflects the underlying trend rather than a single outlier. The standings above are sourced from YouGov, Opinium, Survation, and other major UK pollsters.
What is a 7-poll moving average?
A 7-poll moving average smooths out short-term fluctuations in polling data by averaging the results of the seven most recent polls. This helps identify underlying trends and reduces the impact of outliers, providing a more stable view of voting intentions over time.
How do UK polls translate into seats?
UK polls show vote share but due to the first-past-the-post system, seats don't directly match vote percentages. PollCheck provides seat projections using constituency-level demographic modelling, applying poll changes to each constituency's 2024 General Election result. Try our Seat Calculator for full constituency-level projections.
How accurate are UK political polls?
Poll accuracy varies depending on methodology, sample size, and timing. Most reputable UK pollsters have a margin of error of around 3-4 percentage points. Aggregate polling (like 7-poll averages) tends to be more accurate than individual polls. Historical accuracy can be viewed on our Pollster Check page.
What is margin of error (MOE)?
The margin of error tells you how much a poll result might differ from the true population value due to random sampling. For example, if a party polls at 30% with a MOE of plus or minus 3%, the true support likely falls between 27% and 33%.
Larger samples produce smaller margins of error. A poll of 1,000 people has a MOE of about plus or minus 3.1%, while a poll of 2,000 has a MOE of about plus or minus 2.2%.
How often are UK polls updated?
Major UK pollsters release new polls several times per week. PollCheck updates its data daily when new polls are published. The 7-poll moving average is automatically recalculated as new polling data becomes available.
Which party do young voters support in UK polls?
Pollster crosstabs show the Greens consistently leading among voters aged 18-24, with Labour in second. Conservative support is lowest in this age band, while Reform UK polls competitively across all age groups.
See the Demographic Breakdown section above for the latest 7-poll moving average by age, drawn from sample-weighted crosstabs across major UK pollsters.
Who do older voters support in UK polls?
Pollster crosstabs consistently show the Conservatives and Reform UK leading among voters aged 65 and over, with Labour and the Greens polling weakest in this age band.
The age-group breakdown is updated daily on the Demographic Breakdown section above, drawn from the 7-poll moving average of pollster crosstabs.
How does UK polling vary by region?
PollCheck aggregates regional crosstabs from major pollsters into a sample-weighted 7-poll moving average across the 11 GB regions. Reform UK currently leads in most English regions outside London, where Labour remains the largest party. Scotland is dominated by the SNP and Plaid Cymru polls strongly in Wales.
See the Demographic Breakdown section above for current regional standings.
How is regional polling calculated?
Regional figures use each pollster's reported voting-intention breakdown across the 11 standard GB regions, aggregated into a 7-poll moving average weighted by regional sub-sample size, with no bin remapping. Regional sub-samples are smaller than the GB-wide samples behind the headline figures, so the estimates carry wider error bands.
How is age demographic polling calculated?
Age bins from different pollsters are standardised to five categories: 18-24, 25-34, 35-49, 50-64 and 65+, with each band mapped to the standard bin it overlaps most. Each data point uses a 7-poll moving average with sample-size weighting, drawn from YouGov, Survation, Find Out Now, More in Common, Opinium, Focaldata and Freshwater Strategy.
How is gender demographic polling calculated?
Gender crosstabs are standardised to Female and Male. Each data point uses a 7-poll moving average with sample-size weighting, drawn from YouGov, Survation, Find Out Now, More in Common, Opinium, Focaldata and Freshwater Strategy.
How does the 2024 vote transition analysis work?
The 2024-vote view shows where each party's current voters say they voted in 2024 (composition) and how many of each party's 2024 voters would still back it (retention). It uses a 7-poll moving average weighted by 2024 sub-sample size, counting actual voters moving between parties rather than just percentages, using recall data from YouGov, Find Out Now, Opinium, Freshwater Strategy, Survation and Verian.