Constituency profile

Holborn and St Pancras

London · Borough constituency · Camden borough

Sir Keir Starmer MP
Sitting MP

Sir Keir Starmer

Labour

First elected May 2015

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
London
Borough constituency, Camden council
Last 5 GE winners
LLLLL
Labour 5/5
EU referendum 2016
26.7% Leave
UK average 51.9%; -25.2pp below mean
Current outlook
Labour +17.5pp
vs Others 19.0%
LondonStrong Remain areaGraduate-heavyDiverse

About the Holborn and St Pancras constituency

Holborn and St Pancras is a borough constituency in London. The sitting MP is Sir Keir Starmer (Labour), first elected in May 2015. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 48.9% to 21.5% for other parties, a majority of 11,572 votes on a 54.1% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 36.6% and other parties on 19.0%, a margin of 17.5 points.

Who lives in Holborn and St Pancras? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
26.7%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
51.0%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
13.1%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
23.2%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
75.6%
UK average ~36%
Median age
32.6
UK median ~40
Age 65+
12.2%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
47.7%
UK average ~28%

How did Holborn and St Pancras vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab hold · majority 11,572 votes (27.4pp) · turnout 54.1%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Holborn and St Pancras

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Holborn and St Pancras within Camden

Holborn and St Pancras sits entirely within Camden Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seatProjection
Camden
64 LSOAs
100%View projection ›

Recent council by-elections

Council ward by-elections held inside this seat, most recent first. The result column shows which party won; the share column shows the top three parties’ vote shares on the day.

DateWardResultTop 3 vote shares
9 Jul 2026Regent's Park
Camden
Lab GAIN from GrnLab 32% Grn 27% Other 23%

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
BloomsburyLabour 48.9%vs Others 20.0%May 2026 Labour 38.6%vs Green 35.7%
Labour share
-10.3pp
33.8%
Camden SquareLabour 49.5%vs Others 20.3%May 2026 Labour 41.3%vs Green 36.0%
Labour share
-8.2pp
36.9%
Camden TownLabour 50.5%vs Others 20.0%May 2026 Labour 43.4%vs Green 35.8%
Labour share
-7.1pp
32.4%
HaverstockLabour 49.8%vs Others 20.1%May 2026 Labour 40.7%vs Green 34.7%
Labour share
-9.1pp
38.0%
Holborn & Covent GardenLabour 50.1%vs Others 19.1%May 2026 Green 41.6%vs Labour 30.5%
Labour→Green
+25.1pp
37.4%
Kentish Town NorthLabour 52.1%vs Others 17.1%May 2026 Labour 47.9%vs Green 40.4%
Labour share
-4.2pp
49.6%
Kentish Town SouthLabour 51.2%vs Others 18.7%May 2026 Labour 44.6%vs Green 39.2%
Labour share
-6.6pp
41.3%
King's CrossLabour 49.3%vs Others 21.6%May 2026 Labour 43.5%vs Others 32.0%
Labour share
-5.7pp
31.9%
Primrose HillLabour 41.0%vs Others 25.4%May 2026 Labour 33.9%vs Conservative 27.0%
Labour share
-7.1pp
39.1%
Regent's ParkLabour 50.6%vs Others 19.4%May 2026 Green 38.5%vs Labour 33.8%
Labour→Green
+22.5pp
35.1%
St Pancras & Somers TownLabour 49.5%vs Others 20.7%May 2026 Labour 37.1%vs Others 35.0%
Labour share
-12.4pp
32.8%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Holborn and St Pancras at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Holborn and St Pancras at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010Lab holdFrank Dobson46.1%20.4%27.9%1.1% UKIP2.7%1.8%9,94263.1%
2015Lab holdKeir Starmer52.9%21.9%6.5%5.0% UKIP12.8%1.0%17,04863.3%+0.2
2017Lab holdKeir Starmer70.1%18.4%6.8%1.2% UKIP3.4%0.2%30,50967.0%+3.7
2019notionalLabour winnerKeir Starmer 2019 MP, pre-review boundary66.3%15.2%12.3%0.3% Brx4.0%1.9%22,76659.1%-7.9
2024Lab holdKeir Starmer48.9%7.2%5.8%6.1% Ref10.4%21.5%11,57254.1%-5.0

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Holborn and St Pancras

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Holborn and St Pancras. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.