Constituency profile

Bermondsey and Old Southwark

London · Borough constituency · Southwark borough

Neil Coyle MP
Sitting MP

Neil Coyle

Labour

First elected May 2015

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
London
Borough constituency, Southwark council
Last 5 GE winners
LDLLLL
Labour 4/5, Liberal Democrats 1/5
EU referendum 2016
26.1% Leave
UK average 51.9%; -25.8pp below mean
Current outlook
Labour +16.5pp
vs Liberal Democrats 22.0%
LondonStrong Remain areaGraduate-heavyDiverse

About the Bermondsey and Old Southwark constituency

Bermondsey and Old Southwark is a borough constituency in London. The sitting MP is Neil Coyle (Labour), first elected in May 2015. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 44.8% to 24.1% for the Liberal Democrats, a majority of 7,787 votes on a 54.1% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 38.5% and the Liberal Democrats on 22.0%, a margin of 16.5 points.

Who lives in Bermondsey and Old Southwark? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
26.1%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
56.9%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
12.6%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
23.8%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
73.0%
UK average ~36%
Median age
32.5
UK median ~40
Age 65+
8.3%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
49.7%
UK average ~28%

How did Bermondsey and Old Southwark vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab hold · majority 7,787 votes (20.7pp) · turnout 54.1%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Bermondsey and Old Southwark

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Bermondsey and Old Southwark within Southwark

Bermondsey and Old Southwark sits entirely within Southwark Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seatProjection
Southwark
63 LSOAs
100%View projection ›

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
Borough & BanksideLabour 38.8%vs Lib Dem 29.0%May 2026 Lib Dem 39.6%vs Green 25.3%
Labour→Lib Dem
+13.7pp
100.0%
ChaucerLabour 50.3%vs Lib Dem 19.0%May 2026 Green 37.8%vs Labour 32.0%
Labour→Green
+22.2pp
37.9%
London Bridge & West BermondseyLabour 45.5%vs Lib Dem 24.1%May 2026 Labour 35.5%vs Lib Dem 32.0%
Labour share
-10.0pp
36.5%
North BermondseyLabour 41.1%vs Lib Dem 28.9%May 2026 Lib Dem 36.5%vs Green 24.3%
Labour→Lib Dem
+13.3pp
37.2%
RotherhitheLabour 50.4%vs Lib Dem 18.8%May 2026 Green 29.9%vs Labour 27.9%
Labour→Green
+20.4pp
39.5%
South BermondseyLabour 46.4%vs Lib Dem 23.1%May 2026 Labour 34.0%vs Lib Dem 27.9%
Labour share
-12.4pp
37.9%
St George'sLabour 44.4%vs Lib Dem 26.7%May 2026 Lib Dem 34.9%vs Green 25.2%
Labour→Lib Dem
+14.0pp
37.0%
Surrey DocksLabour 38.7%vs Lib Dem 27.0%May 2026 Lib Dem 34.6%vs Green 30.3%
Labour→Lib Dem
+13.1pp
40.1%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Bermondsey and Old Southwark at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Bermondsey and Old Southwark at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010LD holdSimon Hughes29.2%17.1%48.4%-1.6%3.7%8,53057.5%
2015Lab gain from LDNeil Coyle43.1%11.8%34.3%6.3% UKIP3.9%0.6%4,48961.7%+4.2
2017Lab holdNeil Coyle53.2%13.0%31.1%1.4% UKIP1.1%0.2%12,97267.0%+5.3
2019notionalLabour winnerNeil Coyle 2019 MP, pre-review boundary49.6%16.8%31.1%-0.1%2.4%8,51565.0%-2.0
2024Lab holdNeil Coyle44.8%7.7%24.1%9.0% Ref11.9%2.5%7,78754.1%-10.9

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Bermondsey and Old Southwark

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Bermondsey and Old Southwark. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.