Bristol Central
South West · Borough constituency · Bristol, City of borough
About the Bristol Central constituency
Bristol Central is a borough constituency in the South West. The sitting MP is Carla Denyer (Green Party), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the Greens won with 56.6% to 32.6% for Labour, a majority of 10,407 votes on a 69.1% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Greens on 62.3% and Labour on 23.1%, a margin of 39.2 points.
Who lives in Bristol Central? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Bristol Central vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Bristol Central
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Bristol Central within Bristol, City of
Bristol Central sits entirely within Bristol, City of Council. Bristol, City of was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Bristol, City of | 100% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashley | Green 54.3%vs Labour 35.6% | 2024 Green 60.5%vs Labour 34.2% | - | 46.9% |
| Central | Green 50.5%vs Labour 38.5% | 2024 Green 50.2%vs Labour 38.6% | - | 29.8% |
| Clifton | Green 58.9%vs Labour 29.1% | 2024 Green 59.2%vs Labour 22.8% | - | 40.7% |
| Clifton Down | Green 60.0%vs Labour 29.6% | 2024 Green 56.8%vs Labour 27.5% | - | 42.5% |
| Cotham | Green 60.0%vs Labour 28.6% | 2024 Green 63.4%vs Labour 21.4% | - | 42.1% |
| Hotwells and Harbourside | Green 57.0%vs Labour 30.8% | 2024 Green 63.6%vs Labour 21.9% | - | 39.6% |
| Redland | Green 57.7%vs Labour 32.3% | 2024 Green 59.1%vs Labour 29.6% | - | 47.9% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Bristol Central at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Bristol Central at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010predecessor | LD hold | Stephen Williams Bristol West MP | 27.5% | 18.4% | 48.0% | 11,366 | 66.9% |
| 2015predecessor | Lab gain from LD | Thangam Debbonaire Bristol West MP | 35.7% | 15.2% | 18.8% | 5,673 | 70.4%+3.5 |
| 2017predecessor | Lab hold | Thangam Debbonaire Bristol West MP | 65.9% | 13.8% | 7.3% | 37,336 | 77.0%+6.6 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Thangam Debbonaire Bristol West MP, pre-review boundary | 58.5% | 14.3% | 0.0% | 16,696 | 73.2% |
| 2024 | Green gain from Lab | Carla Denyer | 32.6% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 10,407 | 69.1%-4.1 |
Bristol Central was created or substantially redrawn by the 2023 boundary review. Pre-2024 rows below are for the predecessor seat Bristol West (the seat that covered most of this area), so vote shares and majorities aren’t directly comparable to the post-2024 figures.
Constituencies most like Bristol Central
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Bristol Central. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Leave20.7 / 26.2vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate56.3 / 55.7vs 33.7
- ↓Owner-occupied40.2 / 42.3vs 61.9
- ↑Under 3560.0 / 63.0vs 30.2
- ↑Private rent47.0 / 45.0vs 20.2
- ↓Owner-occupied40.2 / 36.8vs 61.9
- ↑Graduate56.3 / 54.5vs 33.7
- ↓Leave20.7 / 31.6vs 53.2
- ↑Under 3560.0 / 45.9vs 30.2
- ↓Leave20.7 / 25.9vs 53.2
- ↑Private rent47.0 / 35.8vs 20.2
- ↑Graduate56.3 / 47.7vs 33.7
- ↓Leave20.7 / 22.1vs 53.2
- ↓Owner-occupied40.2 / 36.9vs 61.9
- ↑Graduate56.3 / 65.2vs 33.7
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
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