Brighton Pavilion
South East · Borough constituency · Brighton and Hove borough
About the Brighton Pavilion constituency
Brighton Pavilion is a borough constituency in the South East. The sitting MP is Siân Berry (Green Party), first elected in July 2024. At the 2024 general election, the Greens won with 55.0% to 27.7% for Labour, a majority of 14,290 votes on a 70.0% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has the Greens on 58.9% and Labour on 17.2%, a margin of 41.7 points.
Who lives in Brighton Pavilion? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Brighton Pavilion vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Brighton Pavilion
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Brighton Pavilion within Brighton and Hove
Brighton Pavilion sits entirely within Brighton and Hove Council. Brighton and Hove was not due to vote in 2026, so the figures below are the most recent ward results available. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat |
|---|---|
| Brighton and Hove | 100% |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coldean & Stanmer | Labour 38.6%vs Green 37.1% | 2023 Labour 43.9%vs Green 26.4% | - | - |
| Hanover & Elm Grove | Green 56.5%vs Labour 29.4% | 2023 Labour 48.1%vs Green 39.7% | - | 52.9% |
| Hollingdean & Fiveways | Green 52.7%vs Labour 32.1% | 2023 Labour 51.3%vs Green 37.1% | - | - |
| Moulsecoomb & Bevendean | Labour 43.2%vs Green 24.4% | 2023 Labour 70.3%vs Green 20.9% | - | 29.7% |
| Patcham & Hollingbury | Green 48.5%vs Labour 26.1% | 2023 Conservative 37.5%vs Green 27.9% | - | 46.0% |
| Preston Park | Green 57.7%vs Labour 27.4% | 2023 Green 44.2%vs Labour 40.3% | - | 51.2% |
| Regency | Green 59.9%vs Labour 23.7% | 2023 Green 38.6%vs Labour 33.9% | - | 38.5% |
| Round Hill | Green 59.2%vs Labour 26.9% | 2023 Green 53.6%vs Labour 38.0% | - | - |
| West Hill & North Laine | Green 58.2%vs Labour 25.6% | 2023 Green 50.3%vs Labour 35.5% | - | - |
| Westdene & Hove Park | Labour 43.5%vs Green 18.2% | 2023 Conservative 42.7%vs Labour 38.5% | - | - |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Brighton Pavilion at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Brighton Pavilion at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Green gain from Lab | Caroline Lucas | 28.9% | 23.7% | 13.8% | 1,252 | 70.0% |
| 2015 | Green hold | Caroline Lucas | 27.3% | 22.8% | 2.8% | 7,967 | 71.4%+1.4 |
| 2017 | Green hold | Caroline Lucas | 26.8% | 19.2% | 0% | 14,699 | 76.4%+5.0 |
| 2019notional | Green Party winner | Caroline Lucas 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 22.7% | 17.7% | 0.0% | 19,630 | 75.4%-1.0 |
| 2024 | Green hold | Siân Berry | 27.7% | 7.6% | 3.1% | 14,290 | 70.0%-5.4 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Brighton Pavilion
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Brighton Pavilion. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Leave25.9 / 33.0vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate47.7 / 46.5vs 33.7
- ↑Private rent35.8 / 33.1vs 20.2
- ↓Leave25.9 / 32.1vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate47.7 / 56.8vs 33.7
- ↓No quals9.1 / 9.8vs 18.0
- ↓Leave25.9 / 31.5vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate47.7 / 53.8vs 33.7
- ↑Under 3542.5 / 43.2vs 30.2
- ↓Leave25.9 / 27.9vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate47.7 / 56.6vs 33.7
- ↑Under 3542.5 / 40.3vs 30.2
- ↓Leave25.9 / 31.7vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate47.7 / 45.3vs 33.7
- ↑Under 3542.5 / 40.3vs 30.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.