Manchester Withington
North West · Borough constituency · Manchester borough
About the Manchester Withington constituency
Manchester Withington is a borough constituency in the North West. The sitting MP is Jeff Smith (Labour), first elected in May 2015. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 52.9% to 19.4% for the Greens, a majority of 13,982 votes on a 59.1% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 50.3% and the Greens on 26.7%, a margin of 23.7 points.
Who lives in Manchester Withington? Constituency demographics
From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.
How did Manchester Withington vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?
2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.
2024 general election
Current projection
Map of Manchester Withington
Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›
Manchester Withington within Manchester
Manchester Withington sits entirely within Manchester Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›
Council overlap
| Council | Share of seat | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Manchester | 100% | View projection › |
Most recent council ward results
Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›
| Ward | GE2024 winner | Latest council winner | Shift since GE2024 | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chorlton | Labour 55.3%vs Green 22.7% | May 2026 Green 45.4%vs Labour 42.3% | Labour→Green +17.9pp | 52.5% |
| Chorlton Park | Labour 55.9%vs Green 19.6% | May 2026 Green 40.5%vs Labour 38.6% | Labour→Green +19.1pp | 45.8% |
| Didsbury East | Labour 52.1%vs Green 17.0% | May 2026 Labour 37.2%vs Lib Dem 26.1% | Labour share -14.8pp | 49.6% |
| Didsbury West | Labour 48.3%vs Lib Dem 19.9% | May 2026 Lib Dem 44.2%vs Green 27.3% | Labour→Lib Dem +25.5pp | 46.5% |
| Old Moat | Labour 54.5%vs Green 19.5% | May 2026 Green 48.6%vs Labour 31.6% | Labour→Green +26.0pp | 34.0% |
| Withington | Labour 50.6%vs Green 19.6% | May 2026 Green 40.8%vs Lib Dem 26.9% | Labour→Green +25.2pp | 36.6% |
Projection trajectory
PollCheck's projection for Manchester Withington at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.
Who has won Manchester Withington at past general elections?
2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›
| Year | Result | MP | Lab | Con | LD | Majority | Turnout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | LD hold | John Leech | 40.5% | 11.1% | 44.7% | 1,894 | 60.5% |
| 2015 | Lab gain from LD | Jeff Smith | 53.7% | 9.8% | 24.0% | 14,873 | 67.4%+6.9 |
| 2017 | Lab hold | Jeff Smith | 71.7% | 10.3% | 15.9% | 29,875 | 71.8%+4.4 |
| 2019notional | Labour winner | Jeff Smith 2019 MP, pre-review boundary | 66.5% | 11.3% | 15.7% | 25,297 | 69.5%-2.3 |
| 2024 | Lab hold | Jeff Smith | 52.9% | 5.5% | 13.0% | 13,982 | 59.1%-10.4 |
Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.
Constituencies most like Manchester Withington
Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Manchester Withington. Politics shown for context.
- ↓Leave31.6 / 32.5vs 53.2
- ↑Under 3545.9 / 44.0vs 30.2
- ↓Owner-occupied50.2 / 44.4vs 61.9
- ↑Graduate54.5 / 55.7vs 33.7
- ↓Leave31.6 / 26.2vs 53.2
- ↑Under 3545.9 / 50.5vs 30.2
- ↓Leave31.6 / 27.8vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate54.5 / 61.0vs 33.7
- ↑Private rent34.0 / 34.8vs 20.2
- ↓Leave31.6 / 25.6vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate54.5 / 61.8vs 33.7
- ↑Under 3545.9 / 45.1vs 30.2
- ↓Leave31.6 / 31.5vs 53.2
- ↑Graduate54.5 / 53.8vs 33.7
- ↑Under 3545.9 / 43.2vs 30.2
What would change this seat?
Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.
Related
Sources
Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›
Show full source list
- 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
- Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
- Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
- Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
- May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
- Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
- Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
- EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
- MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
- Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
- Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.
If you spot a data issue, please let us know.