Constituency profile

Manchester Withington

North West · Borough constituency · Manchester borough

Jeff Smith MP
Sitting MP

Jeff Smith

Labour

First elected May 2015

Current PollCheck projection

Region & type
North West
Borough constituency, Manchester council
Last 5 GE winners
LDLLLL
Labour 4/5, Liberal Democrats 1/5
EU referendum 2016
31.6% Leave
UK average 51.9%; -20.3pp below mean
Current outlook
Labour +23.7pp
vs Green 26.7%
NorthernStrong Remain areaGraduate-heavyDiverse

About the Manchester Withington constituency

Manchester Withington is a borough constituency in the North West. The sitting MP is Jeff Smith (Labour), first elected in May 2015. At the 2024 general election, Labour won with 52.9% to 19.4% for the Greens, a majority of 13,982 votes on a 59.1% turnout. PollCheck's current projection, at the seven-poll average, has Labour on 50.3% and the Greens on 26.7%, a margin of 23.7 points.

Who lives in Manchester Withington? Constituency demographics

From the 2021 Census and 2016 EU referendum estimates. Constituency-level data on 2024 boundaries.

Leave vote 2016
31.6%
UK average ~52%
Degree or above
54.5%
UK average ~34%
No qualifications
10.8%
UK average ~18%
Owner-occupied
50.2%
UK average ~63%
Renting (social + private)
49.1%
UK average ~36%
Median age
32.9
UK median ~40
Age 65+
13.1%
UK average ~19%
Age 18-34
45.9%
UK average ~28%

How did Manchester Withington vote in 2024 and how would it vote now?

2024 vote shares from the HoC Library. Current projection is at the 7-poll average.

2024 general election

Lab hold · majority 13,982 votes (33.5pp) · turnout 59.1%

Current projection

If a general election were held today, at current poll average

Map of Manchester Withington

Switch between GE2024 ward winners (modelled estimates, ~4pp average error) and a demographic view from the 2021 Census. Hover any area for detail. How the map is built ›

Council layer (not Westminster)

Manchester Withington within Manchester

Manchester Withington sits entirely within Manchester Council. The figures below are from the council elections held on 7 May 2026. About this layer ›

Council overlap

CouncilShare of seatProjection
Manchester
54 LSOAs
100%View projection ›

Most recent council ward results

Latest council winner per ward - May 2026 results where the council voted, otherwise the most recent available result. How this table is sourced ›

Ward GE2024 winner Latest council winner Shift since GE2024 Turnout
ChorltonLabour 55.3%vs Green 22.7%May 2026 Green 45.4%vs Labour 42.3%
Labour→Green
+17.9pp
52.5%
Chorlton ParkLabour 55.9%vs Green 19.6%May 2026 Green 40.5%vs Labour 38.6%
Labour→Green
+19.1pp
45.8%
Didsbury EastLabour 52.1%vs Green 17.0%May 2026 Labour 37.2%vs Lib Dem 26.1%
Labour share
-14.8pp
49.6%
Didsbury WestLabour 48.3%vs Lib Dem 19.9%May 2026 Lib Dem 44.2%vs Green 27.3%
Labour→Lib Dem
+25.5pp
46.5%
Old MoatLabour 54.5%vs Green 19.5%May 2026 Green 48.6%vs Labour 31.6%
Labour→Green
+26.0pp
34.0%
WithingtonLabour 50.6%vs Green 19.6%May 2026 Green 40.8%vs Lib Dem 26.9%
Labour→Green
+25.2pp
36.6%

Projection trajectory

PollCheck's projection for Manchester Withington at each of the last 60 GB polls. Hover the chart for the underlying poll details.

Who has won Manchester Withington at past general elections?

2024 and notional 2019 rows are on current boundaries; 2010-2017 rows are on the boundaries in force at the time. More on boundaries ›

Year Result MP Lab Con LD Right (Ref/UKIP) Green Other Majority Turnout
2010LD holdJohn Leech40.5%11.1%44.7%1.6% UKIP1.8%0.5%1,89460.5%
2015Lab gain from LDJeff Smith53.7%9.8%24.0%4.3% UKIP8.1%0.1%14,87367.4%+6.9
2017Lab holdJeff Smith71.7%10.3%15.9%-1.6%0.4%29,87571.8%+4.4
2019notionalLabour winnerJeff Smith 2019 MP, pre-review boundary66.5%11.3%15.7%-4.0%2.5%25,29769.5%-2.3
2024Lab holdJeff Smith52.9%5.5%13.0%4.7% Ref19.4%4.6%13,98259.1%-10.4

Earlier years are on pre-2024 boundaries; comparable results on the new boundary will be added when sourced.

Constituencies most like Manchester Withington

Five seats with similar demographic profiles to Manchester Withington. Politics shown for context.

What would change this seat?

Move the sliders to set national vote shares. The per-seat projection updates live. Reset returns to the current 7-poll average.

Related

Sources

Every figure on this page is computed from the sources below. Read the full methodology ›

Show full source list
  • 2024 general election results · UK Parliament Election Results portal and House of Commons Library briefing CBP-10009.
  • Notional 2019 results on 2024 boundaries · UK Parliament Election Results portal. Recalculated by Parliament; carries assumptions about how 2019 voters would have distributed across the redrawn boundaries.
  • Historic general election results (2010-2017) · House of Commons Library historic results files (on the boundaries in force at the time).
  • Ward-level GE2024 estimates · Britain Elects / New Statesman - article by Ben Walker, underlying spreadsheet. Modelled from constituency totals; average ~4pp per-ward MoE.
  • May 2026 council ward results · Democracy Club via PollCheck's locals 2026 dataset.
  • Earlier council ward results (2014-2024) · DCLEAPIL v1.0 (Jason Leman, drawing on Andrew Teale's LEAP dataset and Democracy Club).
  • Demographics · ONS Census 2021 (England and Wales), aggregated to constituency level using the ONS LSOA21 -> PCON24 best-fit lookup.
  • EU referendum 2016 estimates · Constituency-level Leave vote estimates (Hanretty 2017 method).
  • MP details and Cabinet roles · UK Parliament Members API. MP photos are fetched live from the same source.
  • Boundary geometry and lookups · ONS Open Geography Portal (PCON24 boundaries, LSOA21 boundaries, LSOA21-WD24-LAD24 best-fit lookup).
  • Current projection and trajectory · PollCheck's demographic swingometer applied to the rolling 7-poll average from aggregated GB polls. Not a true MRP - vote-share movements are applied through per-constituency sensitivity multipliers derived from demographic regressions.

If you spot a data issue, please let us know.